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# Money Regime: eleven years of the money backdrop, against Bitcoin and Altcoins
- URL: https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/money-regime-is-live/
- Published: 2026-10-29T15:16:29.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-29T15:23:20.000Z
- Description: Money Regime scores every week since 2015 on four money backdrops and lines them up against Bitcoin and Others. Free with your TMU account, updated every week.
- Author: Oz
- Tags: #campaign-oct-2026

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A price chart shows you what Bitcoin did. It doesn't show you what money was doing around it. Money Regime puts the two side by side, every week since 2015.

## What it is

Each week is scored on four money backdrops:

**Debasement.** Money losing value: inflation expectations rising, real yields and the dollar falling, gold and the Fed's balance sheet growing.

**Growth scare.** The economy wobbling: yields and inflation expectations falling, credit spreads widening, unemployment climbing.

**Crisis.** A fast scramble for safety: volatility at stress levels, spreads blowing out, the dollar spiking.

**Tight money.** Real yields high, interest rates rising, the Fed's balance sheet shrinking.

Whichever backdrop ticks enough of its checks leads that week. If none does, the week is Mixed. Then every week is lined up against Bitcoin and against Others, the altcoin market outside the top 10.

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## What eleven years show

Historically, in debasement weeks Bitcoin was higher 13 weeks later 85% of the time, and so was Others. In growth scare weeks it was 94% for Bitcoin and 88% for Others.

Tight money is where the two split. Bitcoin was higher 13 weeks later 57% of the time. Others was higher only 46% of the time, with a median change of minus 4.5%.

Neighbouring weeks overlap and eleven years is about three cycles, so read this as history, not odds. Crisis shows up in just five weeks, all in March 2020, so it isn't a pattern yet.

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## Where we are now

This week the backdrop is tight money, with the 10-year real yield at 2.64%. Debasement ticks two of its five checks.

The 2017 and 2021 alt seasons both ran with the real yield below 1%. It hasn't been below 1% since September 2022\. That's the backdrop, not a forecast.

[Open Money Regime](https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/money-regime/?ref=email-money-regime)

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It's free with your TMU account and updates itself every week. You'll also find it on your dashboard under Bitcoin cycle and macro.

One thing to know: this is a first version. We set the scoring rules in October and we're still testing them. If they change, we'll tell you and show what moved.

Oz and Doc