> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # The Month Unplugged: July 2026 - URL: https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/the-month-unplugged-july-2026/ - Published: 2026-08-25T11:51:14.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-14T00:14:24.000Z - Description: Two calls in June: correction not bear market, and open interest holding while price fell. Both landed. July is the month the rest of the evidence caught up, and price still went nowhere. Every call scored, hits and misses both. - Author: Oz - Tags: Market Analysis, Monthly Scorecard The Month Unplugged # July *2026* BTC opened near **$63,500** Closed around **$65,334** Range top **$67,000**, unbroken **The first Month Unplugged.** It covers July, written from the record, because the story of August only makes sense with July underneath it. Every call made that month is listed below with its outcome, hits and misses both. The month in one paragraph July was the month the evidence arrived before the price did. BTC opened near $63,500 and closed the month around $65,334, a grind of higher weekly closes that impressed nobody. Underneath it, the picture changed. ETH reclaimed $1,744 and held it, confirming the broad market SFP from the June sweep. Stablecoins went from shrinking to neutral to deploying, the trigger named in every read since June. The forward crypto signal crossed positive, on-chain selling climbed out of the capitulation zone, and the first high-conviction BTC timing window of the stretch opened at the low on 24 July and recovered in full. Four confirmations landed in the final week alone. July never delivered price through the range top, which left the month feeling like nothing happened while nearly everything did. The month in order Four weeks Week of 7 JulyThe reclaim ETH confirmed above $1,744 after the strongest buying week of the move at +418 million net delta. The seller exhaustion thesis completed in the order flow. The delta progression from -2.069 billion in early June to positive territory was the sequence the whole recovery case rested on. Week of 13 JulyThe stall Buying faded to +111 million and sideways became the base case at 42%. The read at the time: value present, fuel absent. The soft CPI print landed the same week, headline -0.4% on an energy collapse, shelter cooling to a five-year low in monthly terms. Supportive backdrop, not a catalyst. Week of 20 JulyThe fuel arrives Stablecoins turned positive for the first time in the move. BTC cleared and held the weekly level. Holder conviction on the Bitcoin Barometer printed 72, the strongest reading on the board. The candle carried the caveat: a hanging man, sellers still waiting overhead. Week of 27 JulyFour in one week Stablecoins moved to deploying, the forward signal crossed positive, SOPR left the capitulation zone, and the BTC timing window landed on the low at $63,666 and cleared all three recovery checkpoints. The read said it plainly. The case for the low was the strongest it had been, and the missing piece was price through $67,000. The scorecard Hits and misses | Call | Where | When | Outcome | | ------------------------------------------------ | ----------- | --------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Correction, not a bear market | Public on X | 10 June | Held. The classification implied no washout, and none came | | Open interest holding a higher low as price fell | Public on X | 26 June | Hit. Sellers exhausted that week and the low held. New shorts became the fuel | | ETH above $1,744 confirms the SFP | Oz Updates | Standing from June | Hit. Reclaimed and held all month | | Stablecoin deployment is the trigger to watch | Oz Updates | Every read since June | Hit. Shrinking to deploying in three weeks | | Seller exhaustion completing in order flow | Oz Updates | Early July | Confirmed by the delta progression | | First leg targets $90K to $100K | Oz Updates | 7 July | Open. Price never left the range in July | | Sideways the base case until fuel arrives | Oz Updates | 13 July | Hit. Range held until the fuel came | | Low may already be in (June) | Oz Updates | Standing | Open. Proof needs a real pullback holding the reclaimed levels | **Where each call was made.** Public on X is anyone, no account needed. Oz Updates is the written members feed. Every call in this table was also walked through on camera in that week's member video. All of them dated before the outcome was known. **One miss worth naming: the pace.** The reads expected the range to resolve sooner once the confirmations stacked. July ended with every condition met and price contained, and the note at month end was that conviction and timing are different claims. The frameworks at month end Box 27 this month Every 30 weeks a new box opens. Box 27 opened on 18 May 2026, and the phase badge shows where each market sat in its own cycle range on that day. July covered weeks 7 to 10\. Below is what each market did inside the box this month, week by week. It is a record of the month, nothing more. BitcoinOpened Low Weeks 7 to 10 of 30 this month · $59,434 to $65,334 (+9.9%) | Wk | Week of | Close | Change | In the box | | -- | ------- | ------- | ------ | ---------- | | 7 | 29 Jun | $63,546 | +6.6% | New low | | 8 | 6 Jul | $63,746 | +0.3% | | | 9 | 13 Jul | $64,680 | +1.5% | | | 10 | 20 Jul | $65,334 | +1.0% | | No new box high this month. The box high stayed at $77,999 from week 1\. New box low in week 7, at $57,945. EthereumOpened Deep Weeks 7 to 10 of 30 this month · $1,572 to $1,955 (+24.3%) | Wk | Week of | Close | Change | In the box | | -- | ------- | ------ | ------ | ---------- | | 7 | 29 Jun | $1,786 | +13.6% | | | 8 | 6 Jul | $1,807 | +1.2% | | | 9 | 13 Jul | $1,872 | +3.6% | | | 10 | 20 Jul | $1,955 | +4.4% | | No new box high this month. The box high stayed at $2,158 from week 1\. The box low from week 3 ($1,506) held all month. Others, the broad altcoin marketOpened Deep Weeks 7 to 10 of 30 this month · $163.2bn to $168.3bn (+3.2%) | Wk | Week of | Close | Change | In the box | | -- | ------- | -------- | ------ | ---------- | | 7 | 29 Jun | $175.8bn | +7.7% | | | 8 | 6 Jul | $173.0bn | −1.6% | | | 9 | 13 Jul | $169.6bn | −2.0% | | | 10 | 20 Jul | $168.3bn | −0.7% | | No new box high this month. The box high stayed at $204.8bn from week 3\. The box low from week 6 ($158.3bn) held all month. **What members get on top of this.** Every Monday, members get the full box read: where highs and lows have tended to land in boxes that opened in the same phase, the past paths those boxes took, and Oz’s forecast for the weeks ahead, with the timing stats behind it. [See the plans →](https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/plans/?ref=post-the-month-unplugged-july-2026-box#alpha-insider) Weekly data: Bitcoin from TMU’s weekly series, Ethereum (Binance), Others (TradingView CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS). Change is close on close. The cycle so far, box by box Every 30 weeks a new box opens, counted from June 2011\. The phase is where price sat in its own cycle range on the day the box opened: Deep, Low, Mid or High. Below is what each box has done since the 2022 low, for all three markets, to the last weekly close of July. It records what happened. It says nothing about what comes next. Bitcoin | Box | Dates | Opened | Box high | Box low | Open to close | | --------------- | ---------------------- | ------ | ------------- | ------------ | ------------- | | 21 | 5 Dec 22 to 2 Jul 23 | Deep | $31,442wk 29 | $16,271wk 3 | +79% | | 22 | 3 Jul 23 to 28 Jan 24 | Low | $48,975wk 28 | $24,916wk 11 | +37% | | 23 | 29 Jan 24 to 25 Aug 24 | Mid | $73,757wk 7 | $41,808wk 1 | +53% | | 24 | 26 Aug 24 to 23 Mar 25 | Mid | $109,354wk 22 | $52,600wk 2 | +34% | | 25 | 24 Mar 25 to 19 Oct 25 | Mid | $126,219wk 29 | $74,441wk 3 | +26% | | 26 | 20 Oct 25 to 17 May 26 | High | $116,400wk 2 | $60,133wk 16 | −29% | | 27so far, wk 10 | 18 May 26 to 26 Jul 26 | Low | $78,147wk 1 | $57,749wk 7 | −16% | Ethereum | Box | Dates | Opened | Box high | Box low | Open to close | | --------------- | ---------------------- | ------ | ----------- | ----------- | ------------- | | 21 | 5 Dec 22 to 2 Jul 23 | Deep | $2,142wk 19 | $1,151wk 3 | +51% | | 22 | 3 Jul 23 to 28 Jan 24 | Deep | $2,717wk 28 | $1,521wk 15 | +16% | | 23 | 29 Jan 24 to 25 Aug 24 | Low | $4,094wk 7 | $2,111wk 28 | +22% | | 24 | 26 Aug 24 to 23 Mar 25 | Low | $4,108wk 17 | $1,754wk 29 | −27% | | 25 | 24 Mar 25 to 19 Oct 25 | Deep | $4,957wk 22 | $1,385wk 3 | +99% | | 26 | 20 Oct 25 to 17 May 26 | Mid | $4,254wk 2 | $1,748wk 16 | −46% | | 27so far, wk 10 | 18 May 26 to 26 Jul 26 | Deep | $2,158wk 1 | $1,506wk 3 | −8% | Others, the broad altcoin market | Box | Dates | Opened | Box high | Box low | Open to close | | --------------- | ---------------------- | ------ | ------------- | ------------- | ------------- | | 21 | 5 Dec 22 to 2 Jul 23 | Deep | $134.7bnwk 11 | $69.7bnwk 4 | +19% | | 22 | 3 Jul 23 to 28 Jan 24 | Deep | $232.9bnwk 27 | $99.5bnwk 2 | +85% | | 23 | 29 Jan 24 to 25 Aug 24 | Mid | $367.1bnwk 7 | $150.5bnwk 28 | +9% | | 24 | 26 Aug 24 to 23 Mar 25 | Mid | $451.3bnwk 15 | $169.2bnwk 2 | +9% | | 25 | 24 Mar 25 to 19 Oct 25 | Mid | $342.9bnwk 26 | $156.6bnwk 29 | +8% | | 26 | 20 Oct 25 to 17 May 26 | Low | $273.7bnwk 2 | $149.7bnwk 16 | −26% | | 27so far, wk 10 | 18 May 26 to 26 Jul 26 | Deep | $204.8bnwk 3 | $158.3bnwk 6 | −10% | **How to read it.** Box high and box low show the price and the week of the box it came in. Open to close is the move from the box’s first weekly open to its last weekly close. Weekly data: Bitcoin index, Ethereum (Binance), Others (TradingView CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS). The highlighted row is the box still running. **The Bitcoin Barometer.** 18.9 in the Bottom band, deep value on a soft behavioural base, one of two capitulation conditions met and no washout printed. Cheap, and consistent with a correction rather than a bear market low. **The engines together.** For the first time in the recovery, the flows, the on-chain data and the timing tool pointed the same direction in the same week. The read closed the month on that. Everything confirmed except price. August The month ahead $67,000 One number decides the month A clean break of the range top on real buying converts four weeks of confirmation into a trend. Failure to break it leaves the range intact and the June low untested by a real pullback. The weekly support at $60,601 is where the bear case starts. [Cycle Read →](https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/btc-cycle-read/) [Join TMU →](https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/plans/) The Month Unplugged is the monthly record of what was called and what happened, published with the misses alongside the hits. Members read each of these calls the week it was made, in the Cycle Read. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.