Crypto Market Update #16: Decoding Time

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Macro Context

 

Bitcoin is in its major 5th wave in my point of view, and I am looking for this final push up which will end the bull market. Here are the possibilities I am looking at in regard to Elliot Wave, Fib Time, Time Cycles, On-chain Indicators and more....

 

Elliot Wave

 

Bitcoin topped out at around $72k in its third wave back in March 2024. The third wave lined up nicely with the 1.618 fib extension and with the current correction spanning around 5 months, this mirrors the wave 2 correction back in April 2023, which too was around 5 months long before price expansion.

 

The image below illustrates the possible macro count for Bitcoin with targets at $105k, $123k and $154k. So the question one naturally asks is what price we are most likely to reach? This is where we can now look at Fib Time.

 

 

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Fib Time

 

This now leads me nicely into the time aspect of the cycle. We have our potential targets but what we really want to know is when the market will top.. Analysing fib time, we want to know which Fibonacci levels give the best pivots. In the chart below, you can see that since the beginning of each cycle, the 0.618 has given the market its final push and the 0.786 is where BTC generally tops.

 

Now by looking at the chart, you may see that in 2013, BTC topped before the 0.786 and in 2021, BTC topped after the 0.786 on Nov. The short answer for 2021 is that the real top of the cycle was in fact in April and the top in Nov was just an overshooting B wave which happens in Elliot Wave before the eventual bear market. In 2012, the question is more valid, as if the 0.786 generally marks tops. As there must be something else happening that can further help us identify these areas more accurately, this is where the 30-week cycle comes into play.

 

 

 

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30-Week Cycle

 

So this piece of information is probably one of the most important factors in terms of time and Bitcoin forecasts. When you put this on a chart, each 30-week period (approx) forms a significant turning point. What is more precise is when you plot this with fib time to give you further confluence.

Let's go back and look at the 2013 top for Bitcoin. You can clearly see the 0.618 coming in around August 2013 and then BTC tops on the 30-week cycle directly after, with the 0.786 coming in after that in February 2014.

 

 

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Let's look at this cycle and combine both the 30-week cycle with fib time and see what it shows. We can see the 0.618 is coming in around the middle of this month (September 2024) and we have also just passed a 30-week cycle which should mark a significant turning point. Seeing as all the past 30 week cycles coming before the 0.618 resulted in big moves up and taking into consideration that Bitcoin should be in the 5th wave of our Elliot Wave count, there is nothing to suggest anything else other than a strong move up over the coming months.

 

So the next question is, will the top come in Q4? Well, the answer to this question is probably yes, but for the year. The final top looks like it could come in March 2025. Why do I say this? Unlike 2013, there is no 30-week cycle coming in at the end of this year and secondly there is no fib time zone point either.

What is fascinating is that the 0.786 fib time and the 30-week cycle are coming in at the same date around March 2025.

 

 

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Long-Term Trend-lines and Onchain Metrics

Now taking that all into account, what price would Bitcoin potentially reach if we were to get a final top in March and does it match up with our Elliot Wave Targets?

So the chart below illustrates trend-lines that have previously called each cycle top. What I also like about these trend-lines is that it perfectly shows the decreasing ROI, which is natural as Bitcoin matures and increases in market cap.

 

Fast forwarding to the next top, which in my opinion will be the cycle top when price meets this green line again. If we are looking at a Nov-Dec price, which is generally a month for a yearly top, this should be around $100k, but if that target is not reached, then we should look to March and the $122k target is well within reach.

 

 

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The final indicators that I like to look at are the Puell, SOPR and Mayer Multiple Bands to see what kind of price targets we can derive from the time periods we have in mind.

 

Below is the Puell multiple, a market metric for estimating the level of selling pressure in the market coming from miners. Generally, this shows very good accumulation and selling areas and, as of now, this metric shows that there is plenty of time left before Bitcoin tops.

 

 

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Next, the Mayer Multiple is a very good indicator at showing when the market is in premium or discount zones. What we can see currently is that Bitcoin is in more of a discount zone than premium. What is more important is knowing how to analyse this chart. Many first-time on-lookers may simply decide that the red zone would be the premium area for Bitcoin. However, when you analyse this chart you see that Bitcoin tops one band less in each of its cycles. That would suggest that Bitcoin tops around the white line this cycle, which is currently at around $93k.

 

As these price bands are dynamic, by the time we get to the end of the year the top price will be a lot higher and coming into our $100-$150k confluence area, which are in-line with our Elliot Wave targets. I will be looking at these price bands to give me another confluence of a topping area for Bitcoin.

 

 

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Conclusion

 

Bitcoin appears to be in its final 5th wave of the current bull market, with potential price targets between $100k and $154k. The timing of the market top is crucial, with key indicators such as Fibonacci Time Zones, the 30-week cycle, and long-term trend lines all pointing to a strong upward movement in the coming months. I expect a turning point at 0.618, which is around September 2024, with the final market top could be in March 2025, potentially reaching $122k or higher. On-chain metrics like the Puell Multiple and Mayer Multiple suggest there is still room for growth before the market peaks.

 

In any case, the wisest decision would be to DCA out rather than wait for a specific top.

 

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Everything presented here is for educational purposes. This is my own personal opinion does not constitute financial advice. Please check with a registered professional in your area for specific investment advice.

 

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