On-Chain Intelligence
On-Chain Indicator Lab
Four essential Bitcoin indicators used by the TMU team to read cycle position, market sentiment and miner behaviour — explained plainly and linked to the live data.
Bitcoin indicators
Mayer Multiple Bands
Price vs 200DMA
Compares the current Bitcoin price to its 200-day moving average. The bands show how far price has deviated from its long-term trend — helping identify whether Bitcoin is historically cheap or expensive relative to where it normally trades.
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Watch for: Values above 2.4 historically align with cycle tops. Values below 1.0 have marked some of the best long-term buying opportunities.
Fear & Greed Index
Market Sentiment
A composite sentiment score combining volatility, momentum, social media trends, trading volume and market dominance. Produces a single 0–100 reading — low numbers signal fear and potential undervaluation, high numbers signal greed and elevated risk of a correction.
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Watch for: Extreme fear (0–25) has historically been a strong buying signal. Extreme greed (75–100) often precedes sharp pullbacks.
Puell Top & Bottom
Miner Profitability
Measures miner profitability by comparing daily Bitcoin issuance value (in USD) to its yearly moving average. When miners are highly profitable relative to their annual average, it historically aligns with market tops. When miners are under stress, it can mark market bottoms.
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Watch for: High readings suggest miners may sell to lock in profits, creating sell pressure. Low readings suggest capitulation — historically strong accumulation zones.
NUPL Indicator
Unrealised P&L
Net Unrealised Profit/Loss measures the difference between unrealised profits and losses across all Bitcoin holders. Categorises the market into phases — euphoria, optimism, anxiety and capitulation — giving a clear read on where in the sentiment cycle the market currently sits.
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Watch for: Euphoria (NUPL > 0.75) signals most holders are in significant profit — historically marks cycle tops. Capitulation (NUPL < 0) signals widespread losses — historically marks bottoms.
Go deeper
Want these indicators in context?
Every Monday's Market Pulse applies macro and on-chain data to current market conditions — giving you the interpretation, not just the charts.