What is the Delta Engine?

The Delta Engine is TMU's weekly Bitcoin signal. It combines four factors into one read: Bybit order flow delta, candle structure, AAII sentiment, and price proximity. Output is one of five signals: Strong Top, Weak Top, No Signal, Weak Bottom, or Strong Bottom. Published every Monday at 7am UTC and live since 2022 with no missed weeks.

How often is the Delta Engine updated?

The Delta Engine signal is published once a week, every Monday at 7am UTC. Sentiment data from AAII is added on Wednesdays which can refine the signal mid-week.

What are the four factors in the Delta Engine?

Order flow (Bybit delta volume of buying vs selling pressure), candle structure (weekly candle formations and historical hit rates), AAII sentiment (the American Association of Individual Investors weekly bull/bear survey), and price proximity (where price sits relative to key volume profile nodes and cycle levels).

What does Strong Top, Weak Top, Weak Bottom or Strong Bottom mean?

Strong signals fire when multiple factors agree decisively. Weak signals fire when factors lean in one direction but not decisively. No Signal is the most common state, when factors disagree or are neutral. Historically, Strong Bottom signals have preceded recoveries and Strong Top signals have preceded meaningful drawdowns, with hit rates of 100 percent and 86 percent respectively at the 8-week horizon based on data through May 2026.

Delta Engine | The Markets Unplugged

Delta Engine — full analysis unlocked.

Order flow + candle + sentiment

Delta Engine

A weekly signal built from Bybit order flow delta, candle structure, AAII sentiment, and price proximity. Looks for meaningful reversals — not noise.

Updated — w/e —

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BTC close

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Signal

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Delta volume

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Confidence

These readings reflect order flow, candle structure and sentiment data. They are not buy or sell signals — they are a structured way to read market context. Always do your own research.

Current conditions

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Signal evidence

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Is this a top or a bottom?

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Track record

Recent history

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Top & bottom evidence scores — see why the signal fired

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Full history table — every week with signal, delta, candle, confidence

Signal rate stats — how often the engine fires, what historically followed

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