Macro For Beginners Hub | The Markets Unplugged

Learn · Free

Macro For Beginners

Rates, liquidity, inflation, credit, volatility, the dollar and growth — explained clearly so you can read what is driving markets beneath the surface.

10 categories
40+ guides
Oz applied analysis
Free forever
Key points
Macro analysis can be organised into a few families — rates, liquidity, inflation, credit, volatility, growth, the dollar and positioning.
Leading indicators often move first: policy expectations, liquidity conditions, credit spreads and volatility. Slower data confirms later and is often revised.
Start with the question you are trying to answer, choose the category, then open the guide that fits.
For most readers, a weekly review is enough. Daily checking usually only matters during event weeks.
If any terms feel unfamiliar, keep the Crypto Glossary open in another tab while reading.
Alpha Insider
Want the applied layer?
Free guides explain each indicator. Alpha Insider is where Oz combines multiple macro signals into one weekly view — so the picture is never read in isolation.
Explore membership
Macro watchlist reads
Global M2 Money Supply And Bitcoin
Understanding liquidity conditions in macro markets and what they mean for Bitcoin
The Yield Curve, Inversion And Bitcoin
What curve shape and inversion actually signals for crypto markets
The Baltic Dry Index And Bitcoin
Why a shipping metric matters for Bitcoin and inflation signals
The Bitcoin CME Gap
What it is, how it forms and why traders pay attention to it
Navigation
Jump to a category
Rates & Policy Liquidity & Money Inflation & Expectations Volatility & Risk Pricing Credit & Funding Stress FX & The Dollar Commodities & Growth Growth & Labour Trend & Positioning Narratives & Case Studies
Quick picker
Start with the question you are trying to answer
Why did markets move?Rates & Policy → Volatility & Credit
Is liquidity helping or hurting risk assets?Liquidity & Money → FX & Dollar
Is inflation pressure rising or fading?Inflation → Commodities & Growth
Is this trend driven or positioning driven?Trend & Positioning → Volatility
Liquidity & Money
RRP, TGA, M2 and the net liquidity framework
Start here if the question is "is liquidity helping or hurting risk?" — this category covers the mechanics behind the money flows that drive asset prices.
Reverse Repo (RRP) And Bank Reserves — The Quiet Liquidity Dial M2 Money Supply 101 — What It Measures And What It Does Not Global M2 Money Supply And Bitcoin Low Velocity, Rising Liquidity — Why Bitcoin Is Front Running The Pivot Why Rate Cuts Matter Even When Liquidity Is Already High — Stock vs Flow Trapped Liquidity, Dead Velocity And The Risk Asset Rally No One Understands Liquidity Velocity And The Bubble That Never Left — What 2020 Taught Us
Treasury General Account (TGA) And Fed Balance Sheet — Net Liquidity 101Coming soon
↑ Back to top
Inflation & Expectations
CPI, PCE, TIPS and what markets are pricing ahead
Start here if the question is "is inflation pressure rising or fading?" — these guides cover the key inflation measures and how market expectations can diverge from reported data.
CPI vs Core CPI — What Moves Markets And Why It Differs From PCE PCE Inflation Explained — Why The Fed Cares More About It Than CPI Breakeven Inflation And TIPS — Reading 5Y And 10Y Expectations Truflation vs CPI — Markets Are Moving Before The Fed Blinks CPI Falls To 2.4% But Market Reaction Suggests A Broader Narrative Battle
↑ Back to top
Volatility & Risk Pricing
VIX, MOVE and what fear gauges actually measure
Use these to understand whether markets are pricing calm or stress — and how equity volatility and bond volatility diverge in ways that matter.
What Is The VIX — Understanding Volatility Through A Macro Lens VIX vs MOVE — Equity Vol And Bond Vol Do Not Tell The Same Story
High Yield Spread vs VIX — Equity Fear Lags Credit SometimesComing soon
↑ Back to top
Credit & Funding Stress
High yield spreads, lending standards and financial conditions
Credit leads risk — spreads often show stress before equity markets react. Use these guides to read early warning signals in the credit markets.
High Yield Spreads — Why Credit Leads Risk BBB Spread 101 — The Line Between Safe And Spicy Credit Bank Lending Standards (SLOOS) — Why Tighter Can Bite Risk Assets Financial Conditions Index — What Tight And Loose Really Mean This Is Not 2008 — It Is A Positioning Reset Not A Credit Crisis
Investment Grade vs High Yield — What IG OAS Tells You That HY Does NotComing soon
Commercial Paper And Funding Stress — Reading CP Rates And TED Style GapsComing soon
↑ Back to top
FX & The Dollar
DXY, dollar strength and what it means for crypto
Dollar strength is one of the most direct macro headwinds for risk assets. These guides explain why DXY moves matter and how to read currency signals in the context of Bitcoin.
Dollar Index And Liquidity — Why DXY Strength Can Hit Crypto Why The Dollar Is Not Spiking Even As The US–China Trade War Heats Up
↑ Back to top
Commodities & Growth Signals
Oil, copper, shipping and real economy data
Commodity prices and shipping metrics can lead the economic data by weeks. These guides explain what real economy signals say about growth momentum.
The Baltic Dry Index — Why This Shipping Metric Matters For Bitcoin And Inflation
↑ Back to top
Growth & Labour
GDP, ISM, payrolls and economic cycle positioning
Growth and labour data tends to confirm what leading indicators suggested weeks earlier. These guides explain how to read the lagging signals without being misled by revisions.
GDP, ISM And PMI — What Manufacturing And Services Data Actually Tell YouComing soon
NFP And Jobless Claims — Reading Labour Data Without Being WhipsawedComing soon
↑ Back to top
Trend & Positioning
COT data, momentum and what positioning tells you
Is the move driven by fundamentals or by crowded positioning? These guides help you tell the difference — and what happens when positioning unwinds.
COT Report Basics — How To Read Futures Positioning DataComing soon
Momentum vs Mean Reversion — When Trend Following Works And When It BreaksComing soon
↑ Back to top
Narratives & Case Studies
Applied macro reads connecting indicators to real market events
These are applied reads that connect macro plumbing to real events — showing how the forces covered in other sections spill into Bitcoin and crypto in practice.
This Is Not 2008 — It Is A Positioning Reset Not A Credit Crisis The Bitcoin CME Gap — What It Is And Why Traders Obsess Over It Browse all macro guides →
↑ Back to top
Next step
Ready to see it applied to live conditions?
Alpha Insider members get Oz's weekly macro read — multiple indicators combined into one applied view showing what the current macro regime means for Bitcoin and altcoins right now.
Explore Alpha Insider