What Is the MVRV Ratio?

The MVRV Ratio compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realised value. Market value is price multiplied by circulating supply. Realised value prices each coin at the last time it moved on-chain and sums that cost basis across the network. MVRV = Market Cap ÷ Realised Cap.
When MVRV rises, price is moving ahead of aggregate cost basis. When it falls, price is converging back toward what holders paid.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio: Source BGeometrics

This chart shows the MVRV Ratio across cycles and helps contextualise typical risk zones.

How Is MVRV Calculated?

  1. Market cap = current BTC price × circulating supply.
  2. Realised cap = sum of each coin’s last transacted price × coin amount.
  3. MVRV Ratio = Market cap ÷ Realised cap.

This produces a dimensionless number. Values near 1.0 imply price close to the network’s average cost basis. Higher values imply a growing premium over that base.

Why MVRV Matters

  • Valuation anchor across cycles.
  • Separates fast price moves from slower shifts in realised value.
  • Frames risk. Extreme premiums raise mean-reversion risk. Depressed premiums often align with value zones.

Typical Ranges and Risk Bands

Use these as guides, not triggers, and pair them with other evidence:

  • ≤ 1.0: price at or below aggregate cost basis.
  • 1.0–2.0: constructive expansion with manageable premium.
  • 2.0–3.5: elevated premium. Monitor confluence.
  • ≥ 3.5–5.0: historically late-phase risk in strong cycles.
MVRV Z-Score: Source BGeometrics

This chart normalises the gap between market and realised values to highlight statistical extremes.

Useful Variations You’ll See

  • MVRV Z-Score normalises the gap between market and realised caps by the standard deviation of market cap to highlight statistical extremes.
  • STH vs LTH profitability lenses show which cohort bears distribution pressure.
  • Percentile or banded views place today’s reading within historical ranges.

How To Use MVRV In Practice

Build confluence, not single-indicator calls

Combine MVRV with realised price bands (Market, LTH, STH), SOPR, dormancy or CDD, and supply metrics. Aim for alignment across valuation, spending behaviour, and supply rotation.

Focus on the trend in premium

A rising MVRV that remains within mid-cycle zones often accompanies healthy advances. Sharp spikes into extreme zones that reverse quickly are a warning.

Watch for divergences

Higher highs in price while MVRV rolls over can hint at weakening realised value support. The opposite can flag quiet accumulation beneath price.

Match timeframe to intent

Daily MVRV can be noisy. For position trades, use weekly or monthly aggregates and check distance from realised price bands.

Respect regime shifts

As liquidity and participant mix evolve, historical extremes migrate. Prefer percentiles over fixed cut-offs when conditions change.

Common Pitfalls

  • Treating any threshold as absolute.
  • Ignoring the trend in realised cap. A steady rise can sustain premium longer.
  • Skipping cohort context. STH euphoria differs from LTH distribution.

A Simple Workflow You Can Reuse

  1. Open MVRV on a weekly chart.
  2. Reference MVRV Z-Score for statistical context.
  3. Compare with Market, LTH, and STH realised price bands.
  4. Cross-check SOPR to see if profits are being taken or held.
  5. Scan dormancy or CDD for old-coin movement.
  6. Decide: sustained premium with support, or stretched premium with distribution risk.

FAQ

Is a high MVRV always bearish?
No. Premium can persist while realised cap rises. Risk increases when premium becomes extreme and other indicators confirm distribution.

What timeframe is best for MVRV?
Weekly for cycle reads and position trades. Daily is useful for timing but is noisier.

How is MVRV different from NUPL?
MVRV compares market and realised values at the network level. NUPL estimates the share of supply in profit or loss. They often agree but capture different angles.

Should MVRV be used alone?
No. Treat it as a valuation layer within a confluence stack alongside spending behaviour, supply dynamics, and key price levels.

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