Key Points

  • Realised price bands are Bitcoin cost basis guides built from on-chain data, showing where the network last paid for its supply.
  • Market realised price is the network-wide average cost basis, valuing each coin at the price it last moved.
  • LTH realised price and STH realised price split cost basis into long-term holders and short-term holders, helping you see where older and newer cohorts sit.
  • These bands are most useful for regime context… above cost basis tends to be healthier, below tends to be more stressed, but the read depends on persistence.
  • The clean workflow is cost basis first, then confirmation… use SOPR or realised profit and loss to see whether holders are taking profit or capitulating around key levels.
  • Weekly reads are usually enough for most people… daily checks often add noise without improving judgement.
  • This guide is part of the Bitcoin on-chain series. For the full library of indicators and explainers, see the Bitcoin on-chain indicators hub.
  • If any terms feel unfamiliar, use the Crypto Glossary, then return here.

Quick Answer

Bitcoin realised price bands help you read cost basis. Market realised price is the average price the network last moved at, a proxy for the network’s average cost basis. LTH realised price and STH realised price split that cost basis into older holders and newer holders, which helps you judge who is under pressure and who is sitting in profit. Use realised price bands as context, then confirm with behaviour tools like SOPR or realised profit and loss to see whether a level is being absorbed or sold into.

What Are Realised Price Bands?

Realised Price bands are Bitcoin’s on-chain cost-basis ladders.

  • Market Realised Price is the network’s average cost basis… Realised Cap ÷ circulating supply.
  • LTH Realised Price is the average cost basis of coins held 155 days or more.
  • STH Realised Price is the average cost basis of coins held less than 155 days.

These three levels give you a clean framework for where recent buyers sit, where patient holders sit, and where the market as a whole sits.

Bitcoin Realised Price vs Spot: Source Bitbo

This chart shows Bitcoin’s spot price versus Realised Price across cycles, with MVRV beneath, to illustrate premium over cost basis.

How Are These Bands Calculated?

  • Realised Cap: each coin is valued at the price it last moved on-chain, then summed.
  • Market Realised Price: Realised Cap ÷ circulating supply.
  • LTH / STH bands: the same calculation but limited to coins older than 155 days (LTH) or younger than 155 days (STH), divided by their respective cohort supply.

The 155-day cut-off is a convention that separates coins likely to belong to patient holders from coins owned by recent entrants.

Why These Bands Matter

  • Behaviour map: STH RP tracks the pain/comfort of recent buyers; LTH RP tracks seasoned holders.
  • Dynamic support/resistance: advances often retest STH RP from above; deeper resets can tag Market RP; prolonged stress can probe below it.
  • Slope tells: rising LTH RP signals older capital upgrading cost basis via accumulation; a flat or falling LTH RP is less supportive.

Practical Reads

a close-up of some water
Photo by srinivas bandari / Unsplash
  • STH RP reclaim and hold: a strong tell that pullbacks are being absorbed by newer buyers.
  • Price above STH RP but below LTH RP: constructive, but not all cohorts are engaged yet.
  • Distance from STH RP: the further price stretches above STH RP, the higher the risk of mean-reversion to it.
  • Touches of Market RP: often align with value zones inside uptrends; repeated failures below it warn of broader weakness.
  • Rising LTH RP during chop: quiet accumulation by stronger hands… improves the base.

Use With Confluence

Pair the bands with:

  • SOPR / aSOPR: does the market absorb profit-taking near STH RP or reject it?
  • Realised Profit/Loss: confirm whether gains are being distributed or held.
  • MVRV / Z-Score: check if valuation premium is calm or stretched.
  • Dormancy / CDD: see if older coins are actually moving when bands fail.

Common Pitfalls

  • Treating any band as guaranteed support or resistance. They’re dynamic averages, not hard levels.
  • Ignoring slope. A rising band beneath price is different from a flat or falling one.
  • Reading bands in isolation without behaviour and valuation context.

A Simple Workflow You Can Reuse

there is a round window in the side of a building
Photo by QuackyMcduck :) / Unsplash
  1. Open a weekly view with Market, LTH, and STH Realised Price.
  2. Note where price sits relative to STH, LTH, and Market RP.
  3. Check the slope of each band; rising or flattening?
  4. Cross-check aSOPR around 1.0 for absorption vs distribution.
  5. Add MVRV / Z-Score for valuation context.
  6. Decide: absorption with rising bands… or distribution risk with fading support.

Mini FAQs

What is Bitcoin realised price in simple terms?
It is the network’s average cost basis, valuing each coin at the price it last moved on-chain.

What is the difference between realised price and market price?
Market price is today’s quote. Realised price reflects what the network last paid on average, so it behaves more like a cost basis anchor.

What do LTH and STH realised price bands tell you?
They show the average cost basis of long-term holders and short-term holders, helping you see whether newer demand is underwater or whether older supply is sitting in profit.

Are realised price bands buy and sell signals?
No. They are context tools. The stronger read comes from whether price holds above or below them for a sustained period, and what holder behaviour looks like during that time.

What should confirm a realised price band read?
Use SOPR or realised profit and loss for spending behaviour, MVRV or NUPL for valuation and regime context, and exchange netflows for liquidity and stress.

How often should realised price bands be checked?
Weekly is usually enough. Daily checks can create false urgency without changing the regime picture.

If this helped you read cost basis properly, Alpha Insider members can access deeper Bitcoin on-chain analysis and commentary here.

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➡️ Kairos timing windows to plan entries before the crowd moves
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Built for cleaner on-chain reads… week to week.

This content is for education only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose money. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance.