The numbers are clear. At a point where Bitcoin is within striking distance of $120,000, the latest sentiment data shows 34.9 percent bullish and 43.2 percent bearish. That is a bull-to-bear ratio of just 0.81. In other words, there are significantly more participants positioned for downside than for further upside at a price almost twice the previous all-time high.

I do not regard this as healthy scepticism. It is a signal of structural dislocation in positioning and conviction. It is the kind of dislocation that historically allows markets to advance further than models and consensus would expect.