Introduction

The four-year halving story has been a useful anchor… issuance halves, narratives ignite, price trends. In 2025 that script explains less and liquidity explains more. ETFs, policy shocks, credit spreads and short-dated volatility now set the path and timing. The result is a longer, choppier, institutionally paced advance… an extended cycle is plausible.

Context

The classic four-year halving script still explains some behaviour… miner issuance shock, reflexive scarcity narratives, simple calendar planning. But macro liquidity now dominates path and timing. ETFs, policy shocks, credit spreads and short-vol regimes pull more weight than a calendar. That is why this cycle feels longer, choppier, and more institutionally paced… the extended cycle case is credible.

The Case For The Four-Year Cycle

• Issuance still halves… the 2024 cut to 3.125 BTC per block reduces new supply and scarcity narratives tend to drive flows for months after.
• Behavioural anchor… miners, funds and retail benchmark risk to prior cycles, creating self-fulfilling seasonality… accumulation, markup, distribution, drawdown.
• Simple model, simple flows… allocators still plan pre and post-halving rotations, so a loose four-year rhythm survives even if timing drifts.

Key caveat… even supporters concede the supply effect is diminishing as more than 94 percent of BTC is mined. The marginal issuance cut in 2024… roughly 1.7 percent to 0.85 percent supply growth… is small compared with liquidity and policy shocks.

The Case Against A Rigid Four-Year Cycle

• Liquidity over calendar… global M2 and net-liquidity explain a large share of BTC variance. When liquidity slows or credit tightens, the cycle elongates or stalls regardless of halving windows.
• ETF and institutional cadence… spot ETF flows and treasury-like stablecoin reserves tie crypto to policy and rates. New buyer base… slower markups, deeper mid-cycle drawdowns, longer cycles.
• Macro risk complex… tariff headlines, widening high-yield spreads and repeated short-vol spikes overrode clean halving analogues this year.
• Thought-leader pivots… prominent voices now argue the old script is breaking as policy and liquidity steer the market. The zeitgeist has shifted.

Bottom line… the four-year theme survives, the timing regularity does not.

Why X (Crypto Twitter) Feels Extra Bearish

• Recency scars… LUNA, 3AC, FTX trained participants to fade strength and narrate bull traps.
• Headline macro… trade-war headlines and credit stress kept risk assets path-dependent.
• Volatility regime… short-dated vol has been jumpy; fast spikes feed sell-the-news reflexes and mechanical de-risking that look like new bear legs in real time.
• Narrative mismatch… 2021 was retail-driven… S2F, “super-cycle”. 2025 is liquidity-driven… HY spreads, ETF flows, dollar. It feels less exciting on social even when the structural bid remains.

Macro Dashboard To Watch

• High-yield credit… widening HY OAS and a soft HYG are headwinds. Tighten risk until spreads stabilise.
• Short-dated vol… VIX9D spikes map to forced de-risking; sustained cooling often precedes BTC and ETH relief.
• Global liquidity… inflections in net liquidity and broad money correlate with Bitcoin’s trend and cycle length; liquidity recoveries tend to precede stronger ETF net inflows.
• Dollar trend… a firm USD tightens global financial conditions and slows cross-border crypto flows.


Credit stress and short-vol spikes often lead risk-off in crypto… a cooling regime supports trend resumption.

What This Implies For Bitcoin Into 2026

• Expect longer plateaus and staggered advances keyed to liquidity turns… not a neat twelve to eighteen month post-halving blow-off.
• Extended cycle base case… upside legs resume when HY spreads stall, VIX9D cools and ETF net inflows re-accelerate with liquidity. Deviation from past timing is not invalidation.
• Watchlist… HY OAS, VIX9D trend, DXY, global M2 proxies… pair with simple on-chart confirmations if you want confluence.

What This Implies For Altcoins

• In liquidity slowdowns or HY stress, BTC dominance rises and alts underperform… mechanical, not mystical.
• Recovery usually sequences… BTC stabilises → ETH and majors base → higher-beta alts follow once HY steadies and short-vol normalises.
• Product rails can create mini-cycles… they still require broader liquidity to sustain.

Dominance pushes typically coincide with relative weakness across alt sectors… rotation follows once dominance stalls.

Order Flow And OBV Support An Extended Base

Weekly OBV is building bullish divergence while price probes extremes… a bottoming signature that favours basing over V-reversal. We want stair-steps, not spikes… that is how extended cycles build durable trend.

How We Define The Risk Line… Not The Date

We work with price-based invalidation, not dates. For the bullish one to two count, around 73k is the line to respect… below it, we reassess into an ABC extension. Above it, a staged advance toward 106k to 115k is plausible before any deeper pullback. That is how an extended cycle breathes… higher highs in steps, clear lines instead of calendar memes.

Positioning Tells That Fit A Bottoming Phase

Bitfinex long and hedge behaviour tends to load into lows and unwind into strength. Coinbase premium often turns less negative into a final sweep. One more shallow sell wave on lighter spot pressure would help seal the base. These flow tells seldom cluster at cycle ends… they usually appear before extensions.

A Practical Workflow You Can Use

• Top-down first… macro dashboard, then Bitcoin, then ETH, then sectors.
• Map timing windows… high… low… turn… avoid chasing noise outside windows.
• Use spot only… avoid leverage entirely in headline-driven regimes.
• Pre-plan rotation… BTC → ETH and liquid majors → selective alts once dominance stalls and daily ranges compress.
• Write entries, invalidations and size before the window opens… execute the plan, not emotions.

Mini FAQs

Is the four-year cycle dead?
No… the theme survives, the timing regularity does not. Liquidity and policy now stretch or compress the path.

Could we still get a classic post-halving blow-off?
Yes… if liquidity improves, credit stabilises and ETF demand persists… the move may arrive later and look different.

Why are people so bearish if a base is forming?
Scar tissue from 2022, headline-driven drawdowns and a loud four-year narrative bias many to call tops at each local high. We weight credit, volatility and OBV ahead of social sentiment.

What would invalidate the extended-cycle view?
A decisive deterioration in HY credit alongside a break of around 73k would force a reassessment toward an ABC extension. Until then, weakness looks like base-building.

How should I rotate without chasing?
Wait for BTC ranges to compress and dominance to stall… start with ETH and liquid majors… only then layer selective alts.

Should I use leverage to press the view?
No. Avoid leverage… use spot, clear invalidations and staged entries as confirmations arrive.

If This Helped You…

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➡️ Kairos timing windows to plan entries before the crowd moves
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This article is educational content and not financial advice. Markets move quickly… always do your own research, use clear invalidations and risk controls, and avoid leverage.