The Realised PnL Ratio is the ratio of realised profits to realised losses on-chain over a chosen window. Above 1.0 means more profit is being taken than loss. Below 1.0 means losses dominate. The useful signal is direction and persistence over days and weeks, not a single print.
Key points
- The 1.0 line is the bias guide. Sustained above is usually constructive, sustained below is usually stress.
- Heatmaps help you see regime. Green clusters are profit-dominant, red clusters are loss clean-ups.
- A reclaim of 1.0 after a red cluster often acts as a timing filter for re-risking.
- Profit spikes without price progress can signal distribution and digestion risk.
If you want quick definitions for realised profit, realised loss, SOPR, funding, open interest, MVRV, and RHODL, see the Crypto Glossary.
What is the Realised PnL Ratio?
The Realised PnL Ratio compares realised profits to realised losses on-chain over a defined window.
- Above 1.0 means realised profits outweigh realised losses.
- Below 1.0 means realised losses outweigh realised profits.
The ratio is most useful as a regime filter. It helps you judge whether realised flows are supportive of trend continuation, or whether the market is in clean-up mode.
Price in black, ratio colour-mapped. The midline near 1.0 is your bias guide… reclaimed and held = constructive tape… persistent sub-1.0 = stress.
Realised PnL Heatmap And Why It Is Useful
The heatmap compresses day-by-day swings into a clearer view of regime. Green clusters show profit-dominant periods. Orange or red clusters show loss-dominant clean-ups. It is a fast way to see whether pullbacks are simple shakes or more serious turning points.
Alternating bands are normal. Brief red streaks inside an otherwise green quarter often resolve as digestion rather than breakdown.
What To Watch Around The 1.0 Line
- Clean reclaim and hold above 1.0 for several sessions. Buyers are absorbing supply and taking profits without flipping the tape.
- Sharp profit spikes well above the usual range while price stalls. Distribution risk rises. Expect digestion or pullback risk if it repeats.
- Persistent sub-1.0 prints. Loss realisation dominates. Consider waiting for a decisive reclaim before adding risk.
- Flip-flop around 1.0 with small amplitudes. This is often noise. Defer decisions to the weekly read rather than reacting to daily churn.
Practical Thresholds
These are guide rails, not gospel. Pair them with price and other dials.
Run of days below 1.0
Often reflects loss clean-up. The reclaim is usually the cleaner signal than the first dip.
Reclaim of 1.0 after a red cluster
Often acts as a timing filter for fresh adds or re-risking.
Repeated profit spikes without price progress
Often a cue to reduce enthusiasm and reassess.
Deep loss spike then swift flip back above 1.0
Often reads like capitulation then reset behaviour.
How To Pair RPLR With Other Dials
- RPLR back above 1.0 + SOPR > 1… spending in profit and being accepted… bias long.
- RPLR slipping under 1.0 while funding cools and OI fades… risk is unwinding… keep size tight.
- RPLR firm above 1.0 but MVRV stretching and RHODL heating… ride it, move stops up, clip strength when profit spikes repeat.
- RPLR sub-1.0 with miner to-exchange flows quiet… likely clean-up… plan for the reclaim rather than chasing shorts.
What the charts are saying now
The 1-year view typically shows green surges during pushes to new highs, with red clusters concentrated around drawdowns. If the recent quarter leans green with shorter red streaks, it often fits a market that is pausing rather than breaking.
The decision rule is simple. Respect red streaks, then add risk only after the ratio reclaims 1.0 and holds.
A simple workflow you can reuse
- Keep the 1-year chart and the 90-day heatmap open… mark each week as profit- or loss-dominant.
- Only add risk after a clean reclaim of 1.0 with two or three sessions holding.
- Trim when profit spikes repeat without price progress… recycle on the next regain.
- Into CPI, FOMC, and big headlines… expect noise around 1.0… wait for the weekly close.
- Review weekly… persistence beats headlines, innit.
Mini FAQs
Does level or change matter more?
The turn with persistence matters most. The 1.0 line gives the bias, and the trend around it gives the timing filter.
Can RPLR call tops and bottoms on its own?
No. It is a filter. Pair it with price, SOPR, and simple funding and open interest reads for a cleaner view.
What window should I use for the Realised PnL Ratio?
Use a shorter window for timing and a longer window for regime. Daily windows catch turns faster but are noisier. Weekly views help confirm persistence.
Is 1.0 always the right threshold?
It is the main bias line, but not a magic level. What matters is whether the ratio holds above or below it for multiple sessions, not a single tick.
How is this different from SOPR?
SOPR focuses on profit or loss on spent outputs relative to cost basis. The Realised PnL Ratio compares total realised profits to total realised losses over a window. Used together, they give a clearer read on whether selling is being absorbed.
What does it mean if the ratio is above 1.0 but price is falling?
It can mean profit-taking is still dominating even as price retraces, which can be distribution or normal digestion. Look for persistence and pair it with funding and open interest to see whether risk is unwinding or being absorbed.
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This isn’t noise… it’s the full playbook.
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