Date Range: 24 March – 7 April 2025
Author: Oz | TheMarketsUnplugged

24 March 2025 – Early Signs of Rejection

  • Buys/Sells: 263,044 vs 250,304
  • Ratio: 105:100
  • Delta: -$115M
  • Volume: $2.94B
  • Point of Control: Below
  • Open Interest: New
  • Candle Formation: Shooting Star
  • Candle Colour: Red
  • Weekly Closing Price: $82,389

Oz Breakdown
This week showed the first cracks. Although buyers held a slight edge in volume, the candle printed a Shooting Star and closed red — a clear sign of rejection from higher levels. The POC sat below price, indicating that bulls failed to gain ground where it mattered. The negative delta shows that sell pressure quietly dominated. This wasn’t a collapse — it was a signal.

31 March 2025 – Sell Pressure Increases

  • Buys/Sells: 378,223 vs 350,766
  • Ratio: 108:100
  • Delta: -$112M
  • Volume: $3.65B
  • Point of Control: Above
  • Open Interest: New
  • Candle Formation: Shooting Star
  • Candle Colour: Red
  • Weekly Closing Price: $78,322

Oz Breakdown
Volume rose and buy pressure increased, yet the market still closed red with another Shooting Star. Price was trading above the Point of Control, but couldn’t maintain strength. This was a textbook sign of heavy supply overhead — buyers stepped up, but sellers remained in control. The second rejection in a row painted a picture of a market losing momentum fast.

7 April 2025 – Absorption and the Reclaim

  • Buys/Sells: 1,854,433 vs 1,857,663
  • Ratio: 100:100
  • Delta: -$195M
  • Volume: $5.14B
  • Point of Control: Above
  • Open Interest: Close
  • Candle Formation: Hammer
  • Candle Colour: Green
  • Weekly Closing Price: $83,691

Oz Breakdown
This was the pivotal shift. Despite the most aggressive selling of the 3-week period — and the heaviest negative delta at -$195M — the market printed a Hammer candle and closed green. Buys and sells were perfectly matched. Price reclaimed lost ground and closed well above both previous weeks.

This wasn’t short squeeze behaviour — Open Interest held steady. This was true spot absorption. The market invited fear, but buyers stepped in with size. Reclaiming both the POC and key weekly closes suggests a local bottom may have formed.

Outlook for the Week Ahead

After three weeks of pressure and a clear reversal signal on the third, the market is now at an inflection point. The key areas to watch this week are:

  • Support Zone: $82,300 – $83,000
  • Upside Targets: $85,900 and $87,500
  • Invalidation: A close back below $81,600 weakens the bullish reclaim narrative

Oz Prediction
If bulls defend the reclaimed levels early in the week and the next candle opens strong, Bitcoin could extend toward the mid-$85K region. The recent Hammer, combined with stabilised Open Interest and absorbed sell pressure, points toward a potential continuation move.

This week is about confirmation. Watch for strength early — or hesitation near $85K that may hint at a short-term retest.