Commodities Sold Off Before Wall Street Opened—But the Signal Wasn’t Risk-Off

Disinflation Without Distress: The Macro Read Before NY Open

Markets moved before the headlines even arrived.

Oil was down over 2%, gold slipped nearly 1.8%, and the dollar softened ahead of the New York open on Tuesday. At first glance, one might be tempted to read the drop across commodities and the greenback as a sign of brewing risk aversion. But this was not risk-off. It was something subtler — a rotation of positioning in plain sight.

Let’s unpack what actually happened — and more importantly, what didn’t.