The live weekly signal combining both frameworks is updated every Monday in the free Market Pulse report. For the cross-market BTC/VIX framework see this analysis. For the January range framework see this piece.
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What do you want to understand?
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Why Both FrameworksWhat each one misses alone
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The BCIMacro — Business Cycle Indicator
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The CCICrypto — Cycle Indicator
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The Leading Z Signal6 to 8 weeks ahead
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Reading Both TogetherWhen they align vs diverge
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The Weekly Market PulseHow to use it in practice
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What They Do Not DoHonest limitations
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FAQsCommon questions answered
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Related analysis
↗ Free Market Pulse ↗ BTC/VIX bottom signal ↗ January range framework ↗ Macro concordance tool
Quick Answer

Most crypto market analysis looks at either price charts or on-chain data in isolation. The more useful approach is reading macro and crypto-native signals together. The macro environment tells you what global liquidity and risk appetite are doing. Crypto-native data tells you how the ecosystem is responding internally. When both align, the historical record consistently shows the most favourable conditions for a sustained Bitcoin advance. When they diverge, caution is warranted regardless of what the price chart alone suggests.

Key points
The BCI reads the macro environment: global M2, yield curve, credit spreads, PMI, DXY, VIX, and S&P momentum.
The CCI reads the crypto ecosystem internally: cycle position, market structure, stablecoin deployment, and perp basis.
The Leading Z signal has historically led the main CCI composite by six to eight weeks.
When both frameworks align, the historical record shows the most consistent and sustained Bitcoin advances.
Neither indicator produces buy or sell signals. They produce a structured read of the environment that informs judgment.

Why Most Crypto Analysis Misses Half the Picture

There are two common ways people analyse the crypto market and both of them have a significant blind spot.

Technical analysis alone
Useful for understanding price levels and patterns
Says nothing about the macro environment driving price
In 2022 Bitcoin looked technically oversold multiple times while macro headwinds dominated
Buying technical signals without macro context was costly
On-chain data alone
Useful for understanding holder behaviour and cycle position
Measures what has already happened not what drives it
On-chain can look constructive while macro conditions deteriorate sharply
Misses the external environment that sets the liquidity context
The combined approach: Macro indicators tell you what global liquidity and risk appetite are doing. Crypto-native indicators tell you how the ecosystem is responding to those conditions. Each one answers a different question. Together they give a complete picture.

The Business Cycle Indicator (BCI)

The BCI reads where the global economy is in its cycle and what that means for Bitcoin. It combines seven components statistically validated against forward Bitcoin returns across more than a decade of data.

Four leading components

Leading
Global M2 Money Supply
Tracks total money supply across the US, China, Europe, Japan, and UK. M2 expansion historically precedes Bitcoin bull runs. M2 contraction creates macro headwinds for all risk assets.
Leading
Yield Curve
The spread between long and short-term Treasury yields. Inversion signals economic stress. Steepening signals improving growth expectations and expanding liquidity.
Leading
Credit Spreads
The premium between high-yield and safe bonds. Widening spreads signal financial stress before it shows up in price. One of the earliest warning signals available.
Leading
PMI
Purchasing Managers Index. Tracks manufacturing and services activity as a forward indicator of economic momentum. Above 50 is expansion. Below 50 is contraction.

Three coincident signals

Coincident
S&P 500 Momentum
Measures the direction and strength of equity market momentum. Bitcoin has increasingly traded as a correlated risk asset, making S&P momentum a meaningful coincident signal.
Coincident
DXY — US Dollar Index
A stronger dollar tightens global liquidity and typically creates headwinds for Bitcoin. A weaker dollar expands liquidity globally and has historically been associated with Bitcoin bull conditions.
Coincident
VIX — Fear Index
Measures equity market implied volatility as a fear gauge. Elevated VIX typically coincides with Bitcoin selloffs as risk assets are reduced together. Falling VIX reflects normalising macro fear.
Updated every Monday

The current BCI and CCI signal status is published free every Monday in the weekly Market Pulse. See where both frameworks sit right now.

Read the free Market Pulse

The Crypto Cycle Indicator (CCI)

The CCI reads the crypto market from the inside. Where the BCI asks what global macro conditions are doing, the CCI asks how the crypto ecosystem is responding internally.

CCI Basket 1
Cycle Position
Tracks Bitcoin relative to its 200-week moving average. Where Bitcoin sits relative to its long-term cost basis provides a structural read of which part of the four-year cycle we are in.
CCI Basket 2
Market Structure
Tracks Bitcoin dominance and altcoin breadth. Rising dominance with weak altcoin breadth signals risk-off rotation. Falling dominance with broad altcoin strength signals risk-on expansion.
CCI Basket 3
Stablecoin Deployment
Tracks USDT dominance as a proxy for dry powder. Falling USDT dominance means stablecoins are being deployed into crypto assets. Rising USDT dominance means capital is retreating to safety inside the ecosystem.
CCI Basket 4
Perp Basis
Tracks futures funding rates as a measure of leverage and speculative appetite. Persistently positive funding signals overleveraged longs. Negative or near-zero funding signals a clean leverage environment.

The Leading Z Signal

The CCI also produces a Leading Z signal: a composite of stablecoin deployment direction and perp basis that has historically led the main CCI composite by six to eight weeks. This leading relationship is validated across more than a decade of weekly data.

Lead time
6-8 wks
Historical lead over main CCI composite. Validated across a decade of weekly data.
Components
2
Stablecoin deployment direction and perp basis combined into a single composite signal.
Signal type
Leading
Appears before the main composite moves. Requires patience as the market catches up.

When the Leading Z turns positive it signals that dry powder is entering the market and leverage conditions are healthy. This combination has historically preceded the most reliable advances in Bitcoin. It is the primary timing filter used in the weekly Market Pulse report.

The CCI also includes an Ecosystem Divergence signal that flags when price is running ahead of the underlying ecosystem data. When price is extending while stablecoin deployment is contracting and perp basis is becoming overheated, the ecosystem is signalling that the move is less well-supported. This divergence signal has historically preceded corrections even in broadly bullish environments.

Reading Both Frameworks Together

The BCI and CCI are designed to be read in combination because each one answers a different question.

BCI answers
What is global macro doing to liquidity?
Are financial conditions tightening or easing?
Is the dollar strengthening or weakening?
Is fear elevated or normalising?
CCI answers
How is the crypto ecosystem responding?
Is dry powder being deployed or retreating?
Is leverage clean or overheated?
Is altcoin breadth expanding or contracting?
When both align constructively: A Liquidity Bull BCI regime combined with a positive Leading Z CCI signal has been present at the start of every significant Bitcoin bull run in the data.
When both align negatively: A True Recession or Credit Event BCI combined with deteriorating CCI structure has preceded the most severe Bitcoin bear markets. The 2022 cycle is the clearest recent example.

A favourable macro environment alone does not guarantee a sustained crypto advance. If the macro is constructive but stablecoins are not being deployed and perp basis is overheated, the internal conditions are not aligned with a sustained move. Equally, strong internal crypto conditions do not overcome a severely hostile macro environment. When both diverge, caution is warranted regardless of what the price chart suggests.

The Weekly Market Pulse: How It Works in Practice

Every Monday the BCI and CCI are updated and published as a structured weekly report. The signal status for both indicators is available free.

Free version: The macro verdict and the crypto verdict alongside the key component readings. A structured snapshot that tells you where each framework sits without requiring you to pull and interpret the underlying data yourself.
Member version: The interpretation layer. What the current regime combination means historically, which components are at inflection points, what the Leading Z is doing relative to the main composite, and how the current setup compares to prior cycle equivalents.
Updated every Monday. The free Market Pulse signal is published weekly at themarketsunplugged.com/macro-pulse-free/

What These Indicators Do Not Do

Neither the BCI nor the CCI produces buy or sell signals. They produce a structured read of the environment. Acting on that read still requires judgment about position sizing, timing, and personal risk tolerance.
The BCI operates with a lag on some components. PMI and credit spread data is published with a delay. The BCI accounts for this by weighting leading components more heavily but it is not a real-time instrument.
The Leading Z has historically led by six to eight weeks. This is valuable for positioning but means the signal can appear before the market moves. Patience is required.
No macro or on-chain framework predicted every Bitcoin move correctly across the historical record. The frameworks improve the probability of reading the environment correctly. They do not eliminate uncertainty.

Frequently Asked Questions

Global M2 money supply, the yield curve, credit spreads, PMI, the US Dollar Index, and the VIX are the most relevant. Global M2 is the primary liquidity driver. The yield curve and credit spreads signal economic stress before it shows up in price. The VIX measures fear. Together they define the macro environment that sets the conditions for Bitcoin.
A macro indicator combining four leading components, the yield curve, PMI, credit spreads, and global M2, with three coincident signals, S&P 500 momentum, DXY, and VIX. Each component is statistically validated against forward Bitcoin returns across more than a decade of data.
A crypto-native indicator reading the market internally through four baskets: Cycle Position tracking Bitcoin relative to its 200-week moving average, Market Structure tracking BTC dominance and altcoin breadth, Stablecoin Deployment tracking USDT dominance as a proxy for dry powder, and Perp Basis tracking the futures funding environment as a measure of leverage and speculative appetite.
When global M2 expands, more liquidity enters the financial system and historically a portion flows into risk assets including Bitcoin. When M2 contracts, liquidity tightens and Bitcoin faces macro headwinds. Global M2 expansion has preceded Bitcoin bull runs in multiple cycles and is one of the most reliable macro indicators for identifying favourable conditions for crypto.
A composite of stablecoin deployment direction and perp basis that has historically led the main CCI composite by six to eight weeks. When the Leading Z turns positive it signals that dry powder is entering the market and leverage conditions are healthy, conditions that have historically preceded sustained Bitcoin advances.
Macro indicators tell you what global liquidity and risk appetite are doing. Crypto-native indicators tell you how the ecosystem is responding internally. Used alone, each gives an incomplete picture. When both align, the historical record shows the most consistent and sustained Bitcoin advances. When they diverge, caution is warranted regardless of what the price chart suggests.
When USDT dominance is falling, stablecoins are being converted into crypto assets. Capital is being deployed. This is a bullish internal signal because it shows new buying pressure entering the market and has historically led price by several weeks. When USDT dominance is rising, capital is retreating to safety inside the crypto ecosystem.
The free Market Pulse report is updated every Monday and shows the current signal status for both indicators. See the latest reading at themarketsunplugged.com/macro-pulse-free/

The full Market Pulse report including component-level readings, regime interpretation, and what the current combined signal means for positioning is published every Monday for members.

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