How it works: At the start of each year, we record the high and low price that January sets for seven key macro assets. If any of those assets breaks above January's high for the first time, we call that a bullish signal. If it breaks below January's low, it's bearish. If it never breaks either way by December, we call it neutral.

We track seven indicators that historically tell us whether the global economy is risk-on or risk-off — the Copper/Gold ratio, high yield credit, real interest rates, the US dollar, financial credit conditions, oil, and the yield curve.

Once we have this year's profile, we compare it against every year back to 2011 to find the closest historical matches. The more indicators that match a past year, the stronger the comparison. We then look at what happened to Bitcoin in those matching years to give you a sense of what history suggests could follow.

Important: This is a research tool, not a prediction. Historical patterns can inform your thinking — they do not guarantee outcomes.