What Is the Puell Multiple?

The Puell Multiple compares the daily USD value of Bitcoin miner issuance with its 365-day average. It is a way to see whether miners are earning unusually high or low revenue relative to the past year, which often aligns with cycle extremes driven by profitability pressure or relief.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple: Source Bitcoin Magazine Pro

This chart shows miner revenue relative to its yearly average with colour bands that help frame top and bottom risk.

How Is Puell Multiple Calculated?

  1. Calculate the daily issuance value: new BTC mined that day × spot price in USD.
  2. Compute the 365-day moving average of that issuance value.
  3. Puell Multiple = Daily issuance value ÷ 365-day average issuance value.

Values above 1.0 indicate miners are earning more than the yearly average in USD terms. Values below 1.0 indicate revenue is below the yearly average.

Why Miner Revenue Matters

  • Supply pressure: miners need to sell some production to cover costs. Revenue stress can tighten supply to exchanges, while windfall revenue can encourage more distribution.
  • Cycle context: extreme profits have coincided with late-cycle euphoria before major tops; deep stress has coincided with capitulation areas near bottoms.
  • Macro sensitivity: Puell folds in price, issuance, and halving effects, giving a clean profitability lens.

Interpreting the Bands

Treat ranges as guides, not triggers. Bands shift as issuance declines across halvings.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple: Source Bitbo
  • < 0.5: severe miner stress, often seen around cyclical bottoms.
  • 0.5–1.0: subdued conditions that favour accumulation phases.
  • 1.0–2.0: neutral to constructive expansion.
  • 2.0–4.0: elevated revenue; monitor for distribution.
  • > 4.0: historically associated with late-cycle risk.

Practical Reads

  • Trend and persistence: a brief spike can be noise; sustained elevation in high bands while other indicators warm increases risk.
  • Post-halving behaviour: issuance drops can pull Puell lower for months; use percentiles to compare across cycles.
  • Reaction to price drops: if price falls but Puell stays high, miners may still have strong USD revenue, supporting distribution.

Use Puell With Confluence

Combine Puell with:

  • Realised Price bands (Market, LTH, STH): check whether miner distribution meets rising cost basis or weak support.
  • SOPR and Realised PnL: confirm whether profits are actually being realised into the market.
  • Exchange netflows and miner-to-exchange flow: validate if high Puell coincides with greater miner selling pressure.

Common Pitfalls

  • Reading fixed thresholds as absolutes without considering halvings and changing miner economics.
  • Ignoring the duration spent in a band; persistence matters more than a single print.
  • Using Puell in isolation without checking whether coins are actually moving to venues.

A Simple Workflow You Can Reuse

  1. Open Puell Multiple (weekly) and note current band and direction.
  2. Cross-check Market/LTH/STH Realised Price for valuation support.
  3. Check aSOPR and Realised Profit/Loss for distribution or absorption.
  4. Glance at miner-to-exchange flows on a weekly view.
  5. Decide: manageable miner revenue with support, or elevated revenue aligning with distribution risk.

FAQ

close photo of round gray and black metal tool
Photo by Ash Amplifies / Unsplash

Does a high Puell always mean a top is near?
No. High readings can persist while demand absorbs supply. Risk rises when Puell is elevated and other indicators confirm distribution.

Why can Puell stay low after halvings?
Issuance drops reduce revenue mechanically. Use historical percentiles to compare regimes rather than fixed numbers.

Is Puell a timing tool by itself?
No. Treat it as a miner profitability layer. Act on confluence with valuation, spending behaviour, and flow data.

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