What Is Realised Capitalisation?

Realised Capitalisation (Realised Cap) values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then sums that value across the network. It tracks how much capital is actually committed at recorded transaction prices, not the hypothetical value of every coin at today’s spot.

How Is It Calculated?

  1. For each UTXO, take the price when it last moved.
  2. Multiply by its coin amount.
  3. Sum across all UTXOs.
  4. Result: Realised Cap in USD.

Because coins only “reprice” when they move, Realised Cap steps up during broad accumulation and cools or flattens when coins sit still or realise losses.

Why Realised Cap Beats Market Cap for Signal

  • Anchored to behaviour: it moves when holders actually transact at new prices, not with every tick in spot.
  • Smoother cycle read: it filters noise and shows whether demand is upgrading the network’s cost basis.
  • Fakeout filter: price spikes with a flat Realised Cap often fade; rising Realised Cap confirms real capital commitment.

Reading the Attached Charts

Bitcoin Realised Cap vs Price (log scale): Source MesmerData

This chart shows Realised Cap (red) rising in step-like advances while price (blue) swings around it, revealing when capital truly re-prices higher.

Key reads from this panel

  • Stair-steps upward after bears: plateaus in Realised Cap during late-bear phases give way to steady climbs as coins change hands at higher prices.
  • Rising together = healthy advance: when price trends up while Realised Cap also climbs, demand is absorbing supply at higher cost basis.
  • Price up, Realised Cap flat = fragile: rallies that leave Realised Cap lagging are more likely driven by leverage/derivatives and tend to unwind.
  • Brief dips in Realised Cap: rare but visible during heavy loss-realisation events (capitulation). Persistent declines are uncommon and usually short-lived.
Bitcoin Realised Cap (long-term view, log): Source MesmerData

This long history shows the dominance of the up-only drift in Realised Cap across halvings, with shallow pauses during stress and long rises during expansion.

How To Use Realised Cap In Practice

  • Confirm advances: favour trends where Realised Cap is rising alongside price.
  • Spot accumulation: price ranging while Realised Cap keeps climbing suggests quiet repricing higher beneath the surface.
  • Flag distribution: falling or flattening Realised Cap during persistent price strength warns that little new cost basis is forming.
  • Build MVRV context: compare Market Cap to Realised Cap (MVRV). Premiums expand in bulls, compress in bears. Use Z-Score to scale extremes.

Common Pitfalls

  • Treating any single inflection as a trigger. Look for persistence over weeks.
  • Ignoring cohort detail. Pair with LTH/STH Realised Price to see who is repricing.
  • Reading in isolation. Always cross-check behaviour (SOPR, Realised PnL) and supply activity (Dormancy/CDD).

A Simple Workflow You Can Reuse

  1. Open Realised Cap and note trend (rising, flat, or slipping).
  2. Compare with spot price and MVRV / Z-Score.
  3. Add Market, LTH, STH Realised Price for the cost-basis ladder.
  4. Check aSOPR and Realised PnL for absorption vs distribution.
  5. Decide: genuine repricing with support, or a price move running ahead of committed capital.

FAQ

Can Realised Cap fall?
Yes, during heavy loss realisation, but persistent declines are rare. Most bear phases show flattening more than deep drops.

Why does Realised Cap rise slowly?
Coins only reprice when they move. It’s a feature, not a bug — it gives you a cleaner read on committed capital.

How is this different from Market Cap?
Market Cap multiplies today’s spot by circulating supply. Realised Cap uses last on-chain move prices, so it reflects what investors actually paid.

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