Key Points

  • Realised PnL Ratio compares realised profits to realised losses, showing whether profit-taking or capitulation is dominating on-chain.
  • It is a behaviour metric based on completed spending, not paper gains… so it can act as a cleaner sentiment gauge during extremes.
  • Higher readings mean realised profits outweigh realised losses, often aligning with stronger risk appetite and distribution phases.
  • Lower readings mean realised losses outweigh realised profits, often aligning with stress regimes and capitulation windows.
  • The strongest value is in persistence and regime shifts, not a single spike… watch whether profit or loss dominance holds for weeks.
  • Confirm with cost basis and positioning context, especially realised price bands, MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and exchange flows.
  • Weekly reads are usually enough for most people… daily prints can be event-driven noise.
  • This guide is part of the Bitcoin on-chain series. For the full library of indicators and explainers, see the Bitcoin on-chain indicators hub.
  • If any terms feel unfamiliar, use the Crypto Glossary, then return here.

Quick Answer

Realised PnL Ratio shows whether Bitcoin holders are locking in more profits than losses when they spend coins on-chain. When the ratio stays elevated, profit-taking is dominating and the market is digesting gains, which can increase late-cycle risk if other distribution indicators confirm. When the ratio stays depressed, losses are dominating and capitulation pressure is higher, which can align with stress regimes and late-bear exhaustion when it persists. Use it as a timing filter for behaviour, then confirm with cost basis and flow indicators before forming a view.

What is the Realised PnL Ratio?

It’s the ratio of realised profits to realised losses on-chain over a chosen window. Above 1.0… more profit is being taken than loss. Below 1.0… losses dominate. Direction and persistence matter more than any single tick.

Bitcoin Realised Profit/Loss Ratio… 1-year with price - Source: BGeometrics

Price in black, ratio colour-mapped. The midline near 1.0 is your bias guide… reclaimed and held = constructive tape… persistent sub-1.0 = stress.

Realised PnL Heatmap… why it’s useful

The heatmap compresses day-by-day swings into a quick read of regime… green clusters show profit-dominant periods, orange or red clusters show loss-dominant clean-ups. It’s a fast way to see whether pullbacks are simple shakes or turning points.

Realised Profit/Loss Ratio… last 90 days heatmap - Source: BGeometrics

Alternating bands are normal… brief red streaks inside a mostly green quarter often resolve as digestion, not breakdown.

What to watch around the 1.0 line

  • Clean reclaim and hold above 1.0 for several sessions… buyers are absorbing supply and taking profits without flipping the tape.
  • Sharp profit spikes well above the usual range while price stalls… heavy distribution… expect digestion or pullback risk.
  • Persistent sub-1.0 prints… loss realisation dominates… stand aside or wait for a decisive reclaim before adding risk.
  • Flip-flop around 1.0 with small amplitudes… noise… defer decisions to the weekly read.

Practical thresholds

Guide rails, not gospel… pair with price and other dials.

  • Run of days below ~1.0… loss clean-up… wait for the regain before adding.
  • Reclaim of 1.0 after a red cluster… timing filter for fresh longs or adds.
  • Repeated profit spikes without price progress… trim strength, reassess.
  • Deep loss spike then swift flip back above 1.0… capitulation-then-reset behaviour.

How to pair RPLR with other dials

  • RPLR back above 1.0 + SOPR > 1… spending in profit and being accepted… bias long.
  • RPLR slipping under 1.0 while funding cools and OI fades… risk is unwinding… keep size tight.
  • RPLR firm above 1.0 but MVRV stretching and RHODL heating… ride it, move stops up, clip strength when profit spikes repeat.
  • RPLR sub-1.0 with miner to-exchange flows quiet… likely clean-up… plan for the reclaim rather than chasing shorts.

What the charts are saying now

The 1-year view shows green surges on pushes to new highs, with red clusters concentrated around the spring drawdown… the recent quarter’s heatmap leans green with short red streaks. That fits a tape that’s pausing, not breaking… use dips, then add when the ratio flips back above 1.0 and holds.

A simple workflow you can reuse

mixing of color orange
Photo by Lucas K / Unsplash
  • Keep the 1-year chart and the 90-day heatmap open… mark each week as profit- or loss-dominant.
  • Only add risk after a clean reclaim of 1.0 with two or three sessions holding.
  • Trim when profit spikes repeat without price progress… recycle on the next regain.
  • Into CPI, FOMC, and big headlines… expect noise around 1.0… wait for the weekly close.
  • Review weekly… persistence beats headlines, innit.

Mini FAQs

What does Realised PnL Ratio tell you in simple terms?
It shows whether holders spending coins are locking in more profits than losses, which helps you gauge whether the market is in profit-taking mode or capitulation mode.

How is this different from realised profit and realised loss?
Realised profit and realised loss are totals. Realised PnL Ratio compares them, so you can see which side is dominating.

How is this different from SOPR?
SOPR shows the average profit or loss multiple on spent coins. Realised PnL Ratio shows the balance of total profits versus total losses.

Can the ratio be high for a long time?
Yes. Strong markets can sustain profit dominance for extended periods. The more useful read is when dominance begins to roll over alongside other distribution signals.

What should confirm a Realised PnL Ratio read?
Use realised price bands or realised cap for cost basis context, SOPR for spend behaviour, and exchange netflows for whether selling is hitting venues.

How often should this be checked?
Weekly is usually enough for most readers. Daily checks can overreact to bursts caused by news or liquidation events.

If this helped you turn realised flows into a clean timing filter, join Alpha Insider for weekly on-chain dashboards, timing windows, and member videos. Fewer mistakes… cleaner execution… more conviction.

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➡️ Kairos timing windows to plan entries before the crowd moves
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Built for a steadier weekly view… with behaviour placed in context.

This content is for education only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose money. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance.