Introduction

A sharp lift in Bitcoin dominance with broad altcoin weakness rarely arrives without warning. The KAIROS timing framework highlighted late-September windows in advance and outlined the conditions under which an alt bleed was likely. This guide explains the logic, walks through the case study, and gives you a simple workflow to prepare for the next turn.

What KAIROS Is

KAIROS is a timing framework. It estimates the dominant market cycle… projects a half-cycle guide… scores whether the read is strong enough to use… then maps three window types where risk and opportunity tend to cluster… high… low… turn. Execution is kept simple and rule-based inside those windows.

How The Framework Works

  1. Identify the dominant cycle on Bitcoin and on Bitcoin dominance… this sets the background pressure on alts.
  2. Project the half cycle… a mid-beat guide that often frames shorter swings.
  3. Score the read… if alignment is weak or conflicting, stand aside.
  4. Mark three windows on your working chart… high… low… turn.
  5. Act only when a window is active and a basic confirmation prints on your trading timeframe.

Late-September Case Study

Two features set expectations for an altcoin bleed:

• Bitcoin daily… late September into early October formed a turn zone where the high band and low band overlapped.
• Bitcoin dominance daily… a high window was due in the last week of September after a mid-September low window completed.

Practical read… higher probability of a short-term dominance lift and pressure on alts, especially ETH. That is what unfolded… which is why knife-catching inside the risk window was avoided.


Dominance advanced into a late-September high window after completing a mid-September low window… a backdrop where alt bids typically weaken.


The highlighted zone was a poor environment for reactive buys… respecting the timing window reduced the urge to catch falling prices.

Two back-to-back high windows aligned with local highs… the fade followed. The next actionable opportunity is more likely inside a defined low window with confirmation.

How To Apply This To Altcoins

• Start with Bitcoin and BTC dominance… if dominance is inside a high window, altcoin risk rises and liquidity rotation usually favours Bitcoin.
• Map Ethereum’s timing windows… ETH often transmits pressure to the broader board.
• Prepare rather than react… draft entries, invalidations, and sizes before the window opens.
• Require a simple confirmation… for example, a daily close that reclaims a level within a low window, or a clean failure at resistance within a high window.

Common Pitfalls

• Treating windows as signals without confirmation… windows raise probability but do not replace execution rules.
• Ignoring conflicts between Bitcoin and dominance windows… when they disagree, reduce risk or wait.
• Over-fitting to one chart… triangulate Bitcoin, BTC dominance, and your lead alt.

Mini FAQs

What is a turn window?
A time band where the probability of a directional change increases. It still needs confirmation before acting.

Does a high window mean sell immediately?
No. It means be alert for evidence of distribution or failure. If confirmation is absent, stand aside.

Can windows miss?
Yes. The framework is probabilistic. The quality score indicates when to lean in and when to ignore.

How does this help with altseason planning?
Windows on Bitcoin and BTC dominance frame when altcoin liquidity is usually squeezed or released… improving rotation timing versus chasing.

What counts as confirmation?
Keep it simple… for example, a daily close back above a reclaimed level within a low window, or a daily failure at resistance within a high window that aligns with the broader window set.

KAIROS: Finding The Moment That Matters
https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/kairos-finding-the-moment-that-matters/

Will BTC Dominance Confirm The Next Alt Move
https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/will-btc-dominance-confirm-the-next-alt-move/

Weekly Altseason Timing Report
https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/weekly-altseason-timing-report/

Altcoins Enter A Critical Daily Turn Window
https://www.themarketsunplugged.com/altcoins-enter-a-critical-daily-turn-window/

If this helped you, join Alpha Insider for weekly timing windows, dashboards, and member videos. Fewer mistakes… cleaner execution… more conviction.

The Markets Unplugged members get:

➡️ Kairos timing windows to plan entries before the crowd moves
➡️ A full DCA Targets page with levels mapped for this cycle
➡️ Exclusive member videos breaking down charts in plain English
➡️ A private Telegram community where conviction is shared daily

This isn’t noise… it’s the full playbook.

Legal & Risk Notice
This article is educational content and not financial advice. Markets move fast… always do your own research and use risk controls.