Key Points

  • Long term holders still own the tape… LTH realised price is rising around 39k while spot chops in the low 90s.
  • Short term cohort is under water… STH realised price sits near 98k and STH momentum remains negative.
  • SOPR triangulation shows selective loss taking… headline near 1, STH a touch below 1, LTH above 1.5.
  • Confirmation is mechanical… reclaim STH realised price and hold while headline SOPR stays above 1.
  • Invalidation is also mechanical… STH RP above spot for days with fading SOPR and a flat LTH RP.