Methodology
Twelve tools. What each one answers, and where it stops.
Doc and Oz build every tool on this platform from real data, test it against history, and write down its limits. Here is what each one is for, what it reads, and what it will never tell you. None of it is a buy or sell signal. Don't take our word for any of it: the record on the right is public, misses included.
Every dated call we make sits in one public table, hits and misses together.
36 calls, each with a date and a condition that can fail. Open calls resolve on their deadline either way. Count as of 17 October 2026.
See every call →Four questions. Twelve tools.
Every tool exists to answer one question. Pick the question you are asking and you will know which tool to open.
Where are we in the cycle?
How cheap or stretched Bitcoin, Ethereum and the alt market are against their own history.
When could a low form?
Windows in time, and weeks that look like past bottoms. Timing, never targets.
Is the backdrop helping or hurting?
The economy, credit and liquidity: the tide underneath crypto.
Where is the money, and the orders?
Which alts are leading, where big orders are waiting, and the levels worth planning around.
How a tool earns its place, and how it loses it.
Every idea goes through the same steps. Plenty of ideas, and parts of tools we liked, do not survive them. When something fails we take it out and say so.
Built on real dataOn-chain, price, flow, macro
Tested on historyIncluding years it never saw
Beaten chance?Against random, not a headline
Limits writtenOn the page, in plain words
Shipped to membersReviewed as it runs
Fails at any step? Withdrawn and recordedIt goes in the dated record, not in a drawer
The scored version was scrapped
It rated false starts above real rotations, so it was pulled before any member saw it.
Cycle-top windows turned off
They showed no demonstrated edge, so only cycle-low windows are published.
Weak readings no longer published
They showed no forward edge. Most weeks it now says nothing at all.
One input kept out of the score
On-chain profit-taking did not improve it, so it sits on screen as context only.
Every tool on one table.
What it answers, how often it updates and which plan it comes with. Tap a name to jump to its entry.
| Tool | The question it answers | Updates | Plan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BarometerDoc | How cheap or stretched is Bitcoin on-chain, against its own history? | Daily score, weekly read | Pro: weekly Insider: daily |
| Ethereum BarometerDoc | Where does Ethereum sit in its own on-chain cycle? | Daily score, weekly read | Pro: weekly Insider: daily |
| KAIROSOz | Is a cycle-low window open, and how far has the recovery come? | Nightly | Alpha Pro |
| Delta EngineOz | Does this week look like a Bitcoin bottom? | Weekly, Monday | Alpha Insider |
| ETH Rotation IndexDoc | Do conditions look like past ETH over BTC rotations? | Weekly, Monday | Alpha Insider |
| BCIOz | Is the economy helping or hurting Bitcoin? | Weekly, in Market Pulse | Free summary Insider: full |
| CCIOz | What is crypto itself doing under the surface? | Weekly, in Market Pulse | Free summary Insider: full |
| Macro ConcordanceOz | Which past years does this year's macro picture match? | Monthly closes | Alpha Lite |
| The TapeOz · New | Where are the big Bitcoin orders waiting, and are they real? | Every 5 minutes | Alpha Insider |
| Alt Strength BoardOz | Which alts are outperforming Bitcoin and the alt market? | Weekly | Top three free Pro: full |
| Alt Sector RadarDoc | Which names in each sector deserve attention, review or caution? | Dated reviews | Alpha Lite |
| DCA TargetsPlatform | Where are the planned entry zones, targets and exit for each coin? | When the research changes | Alpha Insider |
What each tool reads.
Tools that read different data can disagree, and that is useful. When several tools reading different things point the same way, it means more than any one of them alone.
Swipe the table sideways to see every input →
| Tool | On-chain | Price and time | Order flow | Futures | Macro | Sentiment | Analyst research |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Barometer | |||||||
| Ethereum Barometer | |||||||
| KAIROS | |||||||
| Delta Engine | |||||||
| ETH Rotation Index | |||||||
| BCI | |||||||
| CCI | |||||||
| Macro Concordance | |||||||
| The Tape | |||||||
| Alt Strength Board | |||||||
| Alt Sector Radar | |||||||
| DCA Targets |
What you see, and where it stops.
Each entry gives the question, what is on your screen, and the limits. The full write-up for each tool, including why it was built the way it was, is one click away.
Cycle position How cheap or stretched, against history
Where does Bitcoin sit in its cycle, from cheap to extended on-chain?
What you see
A score from 0 to 100 with a zone label, built from 15 on-chain metrics in five families, each ranked against Bitcoin's history from 2009 to 2021. 0 is the cheapest reading on record, 100 the most extended. A separate flag shows when capitulation conditions are present.
Where it stops
It reads the zone, not the turn, and is not a timing tool. Bottoms and tops both read early, often by months, and it is never framed as a sell signal. Bitcoin only, on-chain only: no price structure, macro or sentiment.
Where does Ethereum sit in its own on-chain cycle?
What you see
A score from 0 to 100 shown as one of six zones, from Deep accumulation to Overheated, built on Ethereum's own record rather than copied from Bitcoin's. Where a group of measures cannot be scored yet, the page shows the gap instead of filling it with a zero.
Where it stops
It reads the level, not the turn. The top of the range rests on less history than the rest, so it is directional there, not precise. No accuracy figure and no claimed track record. It says nothing about ETH against BTC.
Timing and rotation When, never how far
Is a cycle-low window open, and how far has the recovery come?
What you see
For Bitcoin, Ethereum, the S&P 500 and Gold: any open cycle-low window, the recovery in stages, a countdown to the window closing, and how past windows resolved, with the sample size beside it. It reads price structure and time only.
Where it stops
A window is a zone in time, not a confirmed bottom and not a price target. Windows that failed looked the same at the open as ones that worked. Cycle-top windows showed no edge and are turned off.
Do this week's Bitcoin conditions look like a market bottom?
What you see
One weekly state from the just-closed week: how it closed, whether real buying or selling led, how heavy the volume was, where price sits in its range and how investors feel. The only reading it publishes is Strong Bottom. Most weeks it shows No Signal.
Where it stops
Not a forecast, target or trade trigger, and Bitcoin only. Weak readings are not published because they showed no edge. A separate Top Potential flag is marked unvalidated. It does not tell you what happens next week.
Do today's ETH against BTC conditions resemble the setup past rotations shared?
What you see
One of four states with no score: Quiet, Watch, Caution or Aligned, each with the conditions behind it. Aligned means both conditions that past rotations shared are present now. The page shows the small set of rotations it rests on.
Where it stops
It does not score, predict or name a date, and says nothing about any altcoin. Aligned is not a buy. Two known false dawns still read as strong setups, and they are documented rather than tuned away.
Macro and market regime The tide underneath
Are the broad conditions that have supported Bitcoin improving or getting worse?
What you see
The current macro regime, a composite reading against its own history, leading and coincident readings with the gap between them, and context labels to tell a macro-driven move from a crypto one. Liquidity, credit, business activity and stress, all from public data.
Where it stops
A regime and risk filter, not a buy or sell signal. It cannot see tops driven by crypto itself while the economy looks healthy. Its strongest top warning needs weeks of confirmation, so it is late by design.
What is the crypto market doing from the inside?
What you see
A weekly composite with a separate leading line, plus rows for cycle position, market structure, stablecoin deployment and futures positioning, and a staged bottom-recovery sequence showing which phase is active.
Where it stops
Weekly bars only, so sharp moves inside a week show at the close. It can miss tops driven by things it does not measure. The recovery sequence must go in order, so an unusual recovery can be caught late.
Which past years does this year's macro picture look like?
What you see
Seven macro assets, each marked bullish, bearish or neutral by how it broke its January range, then past years grouped by how closely they match and how each group went for the asset you pick. The match is a visible count out of seven, with no hidden weights.
Where it stops
Regime context, not a signal or target. It reads monthly closes, so it moves slowly. Most of its history starts in the early 2010s and the closest groups can hold very few years, so read their percentages with care.
Flow, strength and levels Where the money and the orders are
Where are the big Bitcoin orders waiting, and are they real?
What you see
The Bitcoin order book on Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and Bitfinex, read every 10 seconds: who leads the book, the big walls above and below price, and a flash when a wall is filled, pulled or broken. A break only counts on an hourly close, and only becomes a breakout or breakdown when price follows through. Each exchange carries a score for how often its big orders get pulled.
Where it stops
It shows where orders are waiting, not where price goes. A wall only counts once price tests it, and many are pulled before anyone can trade. Beyond about 1% from price only part of the book is visible. It is new, and every flash is being scored before any hit rate is shared.
Which alts are outperforming Bitcoin and the rest of the alt market?
What you see
A weekly ranking of relative strength: how each coin has moved against Bitcoin and against the alt market over the last three and six months. A reading of +20% against Bitcoin means it beat Bitcoin by twenty percent, not that it rose twenty percent.
Where it stops
A ranking, not a signal, and it does not forecast. A coin at the top has already moved, not one that is about to. It does not show a cycle position per coin.
Which names in each sector deserve attention, deeper review or caution right now?
What you see
Names grouped by sector, each in one of three phases: Watch-Only, Priority Review or TMU Focus, judged against sector peers and dated on every review. A name not re-examined is shown as carried forward, never as reconfirmed.
Where it stops
Not a score, a leaderboard or a buy list, and it does not rank the whole market. There is no automated scoring engine behind it and we do not claim one. Every board carries its review date and a coverage note.
Where are the planned entry zones, staged targets and the line where the plan is wrong?
What you see
For Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and the alt market: accumulation zones, up to five profit tiers and an invalidation level, all against the live price, with guidance scaled to the risk profile you choose. Members can request other coins.
Where it stops
A plan made in advance, not a signal, not auto-trading and not personal advice. The levels come from TMU's research; the tool shows them. Targets are held back during corrective phases. The on-screen hit-rate is a rough guide, not an audited record.
Three things we won't publish.
Formulas, weights or thresholds
The workings stay internal, and we say so plainly. Every claim on this page describes what the tool actually does.
Accuracy figures we can't defend
A tool with no defensible figure gets none. Our editorial policy sets out how we test, and the dated record shows what we removed and when.
Live readings as examples
An example reading becomes a claim the moment it is published. A page that ages into a false claim is worse than no page.
Check the record, then decide.
The tools are only worth using if the people behind them are honest about results. Every call we make is dated, scored and public, misses included. Start there.
Last reviewed: 17 October 2026. This page is kept in line with the tools as they are built. When a tool changes, this page changes.
The Markets Unplugged publishes market analysis and educational content for information only. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a solicitation to buy or sell, or a guaranteed outcome. Crypto assets are volatile. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before making any decision.