MVRV gets posted on Crypto Twitter every week as if it settles the argument. One number, one conclusion, done. That framing fails roughly half the time — not because MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value) is a flawed metric, but because no single on-chain reading carries enough signal on its own. Every metric works in some regimes and fails in others. MVRV at 2.53 looked moderate at the October 2025 ATH of $124,753. The correction that followed erased 49.7% of price over 18 weeks.
Five years ago, Doc started building a composite designed to hold across full cycles, not just the regimes where a single metric happens to perform. The design question was direct: which on-chain families need representation in a single score for it to remain cycle-accurate? After two cycles of iteration, the answer became the Bitcoin Barometer — 27 metrics across 6 families, each scored as a percentile against its own historical distribution, combined into one number updated three times per week.
This piece covers what the six families are, how the scoring works, and why the composite read Late Bull at the October 2025 ATH while MVRV argued for more runway. The live score is at themarketsunplugged.com/bitcoin-barometer/, updated every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 07:00 UTC.
What the Bitcoin Barometer Is
The score runs from 0 to 100. Zero marks the cheapest on-chain conditions in Bitcoin's recorded history. One hundred marks the most extended. Between those extremes sit six zones, each with a distinct on-chain character and a distinct historical relationship to what price does next.
The distinction between the composite and any individual metric is not a matter of data volume. It is a matter of regime coverage. MVRV dominates its own dimension — aggregate unrealised profit — but has no access to spending behaviour, chain flows, or cycle timing. The composite captures all three alongside valuation. When they agree, the signal has structural confirmation. When they disagree, the model says nothing rather than forcing a read.
Why a Single On-Chain Metric Is Never Enough
Every on-chain metric captures one dimension of the market. Reserve Risk measures the ratio of current price to accumulated holder conviction over time. The Puell Multiple measures miner revenue relative to its one-year moving average. MVRV measures aggregate unrealised profit relative to cost basis. Each answers one question. None answers the same question, and none covers for the others when its regime breaks down.
The structural problem is regime dependency. MVRV performs well at extremes — deep capitulation and peak euphoria. In the middle third of a cycle, its signal weakens. Reserve Risk tends to be most informative during accumulation phases. Cycle Timing metrics add context near macro inflection points but contribute little during stable mid-cycle progression. No single metric knows which regime it is currently in. Six families across independent categories cover the regimes redundantly.
The Six Families Inside the Bitcoin Barometer
This family asks whether the market is overextended or historically cheap relative to its on-chain cost basis and holder profitability. It measures the gap between what Bitcoin is currently priced at and what the chain says it is intrinsically worth, using the full distribution of holder cost basis as the anchor.
Headline metrics include MVRV Z-Score, Reserve Risk, and RHODL Ratio. This family carries the most individual metrics in the composite and tends to be the primary signal driver at cycle extremes. It was the dominant contributor at both the November 2022 cycle bottom and the October 2025 ATH.
This family asks whether long-term holders are accumulating, holding firm, or beginning to distribute at scale. It tracks the behaviour of the coins that matter — those held through previous drawdowns. A strengthening read from this family at low prices has historically preceded sustained price recovery.
The logic is straightforward: holders who have survived at least one full drawdown cycle are the most informed participants in the market. When they are adding to their positions rather than selling, that is a signal about their read on value, not noise. Headline metrics include LTH SOPR and Liveliness.
This family asks whether profit-taking is being absorbed by demand or starting to overwhelm it. MVRV tells you the market is in profit. This family tells you how aggressively holders are acting on that profit — a dimension MVRV has no access to, and the dimension that provided the critical signal at the October 2025 ATH.
At the October 2025 ATH, valuation metrics looked moderate in isolation. But aSOPR, STH SOPR, VDD Multiple, and LTH SOPR were all elevated. Coins were moving at scale. That spending behaviour fed the composite score toward Late Bull even while MVRV at 2.53 argued for more runway. Headline metrics: aSOPR and VDD Multiple.
This family asks whether miners are under economic pressure or operating from a position of strength. Miner sell pressure is a structural supply input that sits entirely outside the holder-behaviour families. When miners are profitable and comfortable, they tend to hold. When they are under pressure, they sell into the market regardless of cycle position.
The Puell Multiple is the primary metric — it compares daily miner revenue to its one-year moving average. At current levels, miner economics sit in historically low territory, consistent with the Accumulation zone reading and not a source of structural sell pressure.
This family asks whether the structural supply and demand picture on-chain is constructive or deteriorating. It tracks exchange reserve balances and ETF holdings — the plumbing of where coins are moving at a network level and whether that movement signals accumulation or distribution.
Exchange reserve balances falling over time indicate coins are moving off exchanges — a structural supply reduction. Balances rising indicate coins moving onto exchanges, which tends to precede selling. The family reads the direction and velocity of that movement, not just the level, to distinguish genuine accumulation from noise.
This family asks where Bitcoin sits in the macro cycle relative to key price anchors. Headline metrics include the Mayer Multiple and Pi Cycle Ratio. It adds historical context the behavioural families cannot supply: whether price is at a point in Bitcoin's history that has statistically preceded tops or recoveries.
This family also carries no cycle timing input that MVRV could replicate. At the October 2025 ATH, leveraged positioning and the Mayer Multiple level added caution that has no representation in MVRV's single-dimensional read. That is the third structural reason the composite diverged.
How the Scoring Works
Each of the 27 metrics is scored as a percentile against its own historical distribution, using data from 2009 to 2021 — two complete Bitcoin cycles. A percentile of 0 means the current reading is at its most conservative level in Bitcoin's recorded history. A percentile of 100 means it is at its most extended. The composite score is the weighted sum of all 27 percentiles across the six families.
The training window closes at 31 December 2021 and does not update. This is intentional: it prevents look-ahead bias and ensures every reading from January 2022 onward is genuinely out-of-sample. The model was validated blind against 16 known historical cycle events, achieving 15 correct reads out of 16, a 94% accuracy rate.
The percentile approach also absorbs structural market maturity changes automatically. The same price appreciation produces a lower MVRV Z-Score today than it did in 2017, because the total holder base has grown. Percentile scoring compares each reading to all prior readings in its own distribution — it does not rely on absolute thresholds anchored to an earlier market structure.
| Score | Zone | Historical context |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 20 | Bottom | Deep capitulation. Aligned with Nov 2018, Mar 2020, Nov 2022. |
| 20 to 35 | Accumulation | Post-bottom. Long-term holders not distributing. Price may still be suppressed. |
| 35 to 55 | Mid-Cycle | Healthy bull phase. On-chain conditions neither cheap nor extended. |
| 55 to 72 | Late Bull | Distribution risk rising. Holders beginning to take profit at scale. |
| 72 to 85 | Top Warning | Multiple families flashing. High historical proximity to cycle peaks. |
| 85 to 100 | Top Zone | Most extreme on-chain readings in Bitcoin's recorded history. |
A Worked Example: the October 2025 ATH
On 6 October 2025, Bitcoin closed at $124,753 — the cycle ATH, with an intraday high of $126,198 on the same date. Below is the full data from that week alongside the correction that followed.
Three structural reasons explain why the composite read 56.5/100 while MVRV argued for continuation.
First, MVRV is subject to market maturity compression. As the total holder base has grown, the same price appreciation produces a lower Z-Score than it did in 2017 or 2021. Percentile scoring in the composite absorbs this automatically — it compares each reading to all prior readings in its own distribution, not to an absolute threshold anchored to an earlier market structure.
Second, the Absorption and Spending family was already signalling distribution. MVRV measures whether the market is in profit. It has no access to how aggressively holders are acting on that profit. At the October 2025 ATH, aSOPR, STH SOPR, VDD Multiple, and LTH SOPR were all elevated. Coins were moving at scale. That spending behaviour fed the composite even while valuation looked moderate in isolation.
Third, MVRV carries no cycle timing input. The Cycle Timing family added caution that MVRV's single-dimensional read cannot represent. Leveraged positioning at an all-time high is a separate risk dimension, and the composite captures it.
Why This Beats Reading MVRV Alone
MVRV Z-Score at 2.53 on the day of a cycle ATH produced a false sense of remaining runway. The composite at 56.5/100 did not. The gap exists because the composite covers three dimensions MVRV cannot access: how aggressively holders are distributing (Absorption and Spending), where coins are moving at a network level (Chain Flows), and where price sits relative to macro cycle anchors (Cycle Timing). MVRV captures whether the market is in profit. The composite captures whether the market is behaving as if it is approaching a top. Those are different questions, and they do not always have the same answer. See the On-Chain Hub for a deeper guide to the individual metrics and how they relate to each other. The Useful Indicators page is a reference tool for the broader set of on-chain and market indicators Doc and Oz use in their weekly analysis.
The On-Chain Starter walks through MVRV, Stablecoin Supply Ratio, Exchange Netflow, Funding Rates, and Long-Term Holder behaviour — with current readings and what each signal means at different points in the cycle.
Get the free On-Chain StarterHow to Use the Bitcoin Barometer
This Week's Reading
Update this section on every re-share. The score, zone, and surface metrics should reflect the live reading at time of publication.
Long-term holders are not distributing at this price level. The on-chain position remains consistent with post-bottom accumulation mechanics. Price has recovered without the velocity typical of early-cycle rallies, placing the current read at the lower boundary of the Accumulation zone rather than its centre.
What the Barometer Does Not Tell You
Frequently Asked Questions
The Bitcoin Barometer runs alongside two other frameworks Doc publishes weekly. The On-Chain Hub covers the individual metrics in depth. The live Barometer page shows the current score, zone, and surface metrics updated three times per week.
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