Bitcoin Barometer | The Markets Unplugged

Bitcoin Barometer — full analysis unlocked.

27 on-chain metrics · 6 families · blind-tested 2022–2026

Bitcoin Barometer

Doc's weekly on-chain cycle position engine. Scored from 27 metrics across 6 families, trained on 2009–2021 data and blind-tested on 2022 to present. No price structure. No macro. No sentiment.

—Mayer Multiple

—200WMA Multiple

—ATH Drawdown

Cycle score · this week — Loading

These readings reflect Bitcoin on-chain indicator data. They are not buy or sell signals — they are a structured way to read where Bitcoin sits in its current cycle. Always do your own research.

Cycle position

Network health

Daily

Doc's weekly read

On-chain family scores

Weekly

Cycle position history

2022–2026 · blind-tested out-of-sample

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Alpha Insider and Cycle Intelligence members see Doc's weekly write-up, all 6 on-chain family scores, the full 2022–present history chart, and the week-over-week delta.

Doc's weekly analysis — the qualitative read alongside the score

6 family scores — valuation, conviction, absorption, miners, flows, timing

Full history chart — every weekly score back to 2022

Week-over-week delta — see direction, not just level

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Valuation

Holder conviction

Reading the score

0–20BottomDeepest value. 2018 and 2022 bottoms both registered here.

20–35AccumulationBelow fair value. LTHs not distributing. Patient entry zone.

35–55Mid-cycleNeither cheap nor stretched. Most of 2023–24 lived here.

55–72Late bullElevated readings. Profit-taking increasing. Risk-reward narrowing.

72–85Top warningMultiple metrics in extreme territory. Distribution likely.

85–100Top zoneAt or near the most extreme readings in BTC history.

How this score is built

27 metrics · 6 families · blind-tested 2009–2026

Valuation

MVRV RatioMVRV Z-ScoreNUPLReserve RiskRealised Price200WMA MultipleSupply in Profit %CVDD Ratio

Holder conviction

LTH Supply %RHODL RatioLivelinessHODLer Net PositionSTH Cost Basis Ratio

Absorption & spending

LTH SOPRSTH SOPRaSOPRVDD MultipleP/L Ratio

Miner economics

Puell MultipleHash RateDaily Issuance

Chain flows

Exchange Reserve BTCETF HoldingsExchange Net Flow

Cycle timing

Pi Cycle RatioMayer Multiple

Each metric is scored as a percentile against its own historical distribution from 2009 to 2021 — two complete Bitcoin cycles. The test period is 2022 to present, data the model never trained on. Score of 0 means the cheapest on-chain reading in Bitcoin history. Score of 100 means the most extended. The model was validated blind against 16 known cycle events at 94% accuracy.