What is the Bitcoin Barometer?

The Bitcoin Barometer is TMU's on-chain cycle position engine. It scores 27 Bitcoin on-chain metrics across 6 families into a single 0 to 100 cycle position read. It was trained on 2009 to 2021 data and blind-tested on 2022 to present at 94 percent accuracy on 16 known cycle events.

How often is the Bitcoin Barometer updated?

The Bitcoin Barometer is updated three times a week, every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. The cycle position score, network health metrics, and family scores all refresh on this cadence.

What are the 6 families inside the Bitcoin Barometer?

Valuation, Holder conviction, Absorption and spending, Miner economics, Chain flows, and Cycle timing. Each family contains between two and eight individual on-chain metrics, scored as percentiles against their own historical distribution from 2009 to 2021.

What do the 6 score zones mean?

0 to 20 is Bottom (deepest value, 2018 and 2022 bottoms registered here). 20 to 35 is Accumulation (below fair value, long-term holders not distributing). 35 to 55 is Mid-cycle (neither cheap nor stretched). 55 to 72 is Late bull (elevated readings, profit-taking increasing). 72 to 85 is Top warning (multiple metrics in extreme territory). 85 to 100 is Top zone (at or near the most extreme readings in Bitcoin history).

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Bitcoin Barometer — full analysis unlocked.

15 on-chain metrics · 5 families · updated daily

Bitcoin Barometer

Doc's on-chain cycle position engine. Scored from 15 on-chain metrics, percentile-ranked against their own history from 2009 to 2021, then applied to 2022 to present. Updated daily. No price structure. No macro. No sentiment.

—MVRV Z-Score

—Puell Multiple

—ATH Drawdown

—BTC Price

—Last updated

Cycle score · this week — Loading

These readings reflect Bitcoin on-chain indicator data. They are not buy or sell signals — they are a structured way to read where Bitcoin sits in its current cycle. Always do your own research.

Cycle position

Network health

Daily

Doc's weekly read

On-chain family scores

Weekly

Cycle position history

2022–2026 · blind-tested out-of-sample

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Alpha Insider and Cycle Intelligence members see Doc's weekly write-up, all 6 on-chain family scores, the full 2022–present history chart, and the week-over-week delta.

Doc's weekly analysis — the qualitative read alongside the score

6 family scores — valuation, conviction, absorption, miners, flows, timing

Full history chart — every weekly score back to 2022

Week-over-week delta — see direction, not just level

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Valuation

Holder conviction

Reading the score

0–20BottomDeepest value. 2018 and 2022 bottoms both registered here.

20–35AccumulationBelow fair value. LTHs not distributing. Patient entry zone.

35–55Mid-cycleNeither cheap nor stretched. Most of 2023–24 lived here.

55–72Late bullElevated readings. Profit-taking increasing. Risk-reward narrowing.

72–85Top warningMultiple metrics in extreme territory. Distribution likely.

85–100Top zoneAt or near the most extreme readings in BTC history.

How this score is built

15 metrics · 5 families · 2009–2026

Valuation

MVRV RatioMVRV Z-ScoreNUPLReserve Risk200WMA MultipleSupply in Profit %CVDD RatioSTH Cost Basis Ratio

Holder conviction

RHODL RatioLiveliness

Absorption & spending

LTH SOPRaSOPRVDD Multiple

Miner economics

Puell Multiple

Cycle timing

Mayer Multiple

Each metric is scored as a percentile against its own distribution from 2009 to 2021 — two complete Bitcoin cycles — then applied to 2022 to present. A score of 0 is the cheapest on-chain reading in Bitcoin's history; 100 is the most extended.