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Weekly market pulse

Market Pulse

The combined weekly read — what the global economy is telling us about Bitcoin and what the crypto ecosystem is saying from the inside.

$82,179Bitcoin price

StableGlobal economy

ImprovingCrypto ecosystem

May 11Week ending

The readings below reflect the current state of macro and crypto-native indicators. They are not buy or sell signals — they are a structured way to read market context. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Macro — BCI

Macro holding steady. Markets slowly catching up.

Money supply expanding. Bitcoin slightly below fair value. No warning signals active.

Crypto — CCI

Dry powder moving. Ecosystem building momentum.

All recovery phases confirmed. Stablecoins actively deploying. Altcoins still lagging Bitcoin.

Current conditions

Global macro (BCI)

Money supply

Healthy

Borrowing costs

Healthy

Business activity

Neutral

Economic direction

Neutral

Crypto ecosystem (CCI)

Stablecoin deployment

Expanding

Altcoin structure

Risk-off

Leverage conditions

Neutral

Cycle position — 1.35x 200w MA

Fair

On-chain sentiment (SOPR)

1.004 ↑ · P34 · Neutral

Altcoin rotation

CCI signal

Watching — conditions aligning

Bitcoin dominance approaching extremes · altcoin rotation setup building

The full historical context, what triggered this signal, the one past failure and what to watch for confirmation are available to Alpha Insider and Cycle Intelligence members.

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Cycle timing

KAIROS signal

Active cycle windows

BTC moderate cycle window active · ETH weak signal · SPX and Gold no active windows

BTC weekly

Moderate

Pivot ~$59,000

13w

ETH weekly

Watch

Pivot ~$1,750

SPX weekly

No active signal

Gold weekly

No active signal

The full cycle timing analysis, what each window means, and the historical track record across BTC, ETH, SPX and Gold are available to Alpha Insider and Cycle Intelligence members.

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Combined signal

Where each indicator stands

BCI — Global macro

Composite 18.7, P54. Liquidity Bull regime. Early warning signal at +18.96, gap to current market read at +24.5. Current market read at -5.51, still negative but improving. M2 expanding 2.29%. Bitcoin trading slightly below where macro conditions support at -0.61σ. One minor watch flag active, no top signal. Recovery signal not yet triggered.

CCI — Crypto ecosystem

Composite 7.5. Early warning signal at 10 and rising. All four recovery phases confirmed. No top or bottom warning active, ecosystem aligned with price. Stablecoins actively deploying at 22.4. Altcoins underperforming Bitcoin at -17.8. On-chain activity crossing into neutral territory at P34. Bitcoin is 33.5% below its recent high.

The big development this week is stablecoins. The deployment reading jumped from 11.3 last week to 22.4 this week. That means money that was sitting on the sidelines has started moving into the market in a meaningful way. Historically stablecoins deploy into lows, not into tops. That is the most constructive single reading in the CCI since this recovery began.

The macro picture has also improved. The gap between what the leading indicators are showing and what markets are currently doing has started closing. This week the current market read moved from -7.7 to -5.51. It is still negative but the direction has changed.

Bitcoin is sitting slightly below where the macro environment historically supports it. That means price is on the right side of fair value rather than stretched above it.

On-chain activity has also crossed a threshold. Coins moving on-chain are now doing so at a small profit rather than at a loss. That is consistent with a recovery building rather than a temporary bounce.

The one thing that has not moved yet is altcoin participation. Bitcoin dominance is still rising and the broader altcoin market is still underperforming. Until that changes the rotation remains a setup rather than a confirmed signal. Everything around it is improving. That piece has not moved.

Is this a top?

No by either measure. The macro indicator has only one of eight possible warning flags active, and that is a minor watch flag rather than a top signal. Bitcoin is trading slightly below fair value, not above it. Tops historically occur when Bitcoin is extended above fair value and the early warning signals are turning negative. Neither is happening. The crypto indicator shows no top warning at all. Stablecoins deploying aggressively is the opposite of what happens at tops, where capital typically moves out of risk assets into stablecoins. Not a top.

Is this a bottom?

Not formally confirmed but the evidence is stacking up. The macro indicator has not triggered because the composite is still above the threshold required to classify the environment as sufficiently depressed. The crypto indicator has all four recovery phases satisfied but the formal signal has not fired. What has changed this week is that stablecoins deploying at 22.4 is a meaningful data point. Historically that kind of deployment happens around lows. The formal confirmation has not arrived but the conditions around it are the strongest they have been.

The one thing to watch

Key signal

Stablecoins are moving in. Watch for Bitcoin dominance to start falling.

Stablecoin deployment jumped from neutral to aggressively deploying in a single week. That is the most important development in this report. The next piece is Bitcoin dominance. When dominance starts falling it means capital is beginning to spread from Bitcoin into the broader altcoin market. That is the signal that takes the altcoin rotation watch from building to confirmed. Also watch whether the current market read on the macro side continues recovering toward zero over the next two to three weeks. If it does, the macro picture moves from cautious to constructive for the first time in this recovery.

How this could play out

45%

Bull case

Stablecoins continue deploying, Bitcoin dominance rolls over, and the altcoin rotation confirms. The current market read on the macro side crosses into positive territory, completing the confirmation the leading indicators have been pointing toward for five weeks. Bitcoin pushes back above fair value. The altcoin rotation begins in earnest.

15%

Bear case

The stablecoin deployment spike proves to be a one-week event rather than sustained flow. Capital retreats back to neutral, the macro current market read stalls, and price gives back this week's gains. The slight discount to fair value provides some cushion but a macro deterioration could push conditions in a more negative direction. Price revisits $75K to $78K.

40%

Sideways

Price consolidates in the $80K to $86K range while the underlying conditions continue improving. Stablecoin deployment holds at elevated levels. Altcoin underperformance continues improving slowly. The macro current market read keeps recovering. The setup becomes more complete but the actual move comes in week two or three rather than this week.

Bottom line

Stablecoins are deploying. The gap between leading and current market conditions is closing. On-chain sellers are back in profit. Three things that were not true last week are true this week. The formal signals have not fired but the setup is the strongest it has been in this recovery. One confirmation away.

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Alpha Insider and Cycle Intelligence members get the complete weekly read — the combined macro and crypto signal, whether conditions support a top or a bottom, what to watch this week, probability scenarios and the bottom line verdict.

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How to read this report

BCI — Business Cycle Indicator

The macro indicator. It reads the global economy using money supply, interest rates, business activity and market conditions to assess whether the environment is supportive or hostile for Bitcoin.

CCI — Crypto Cycle Indicator

The crypto-native indicator. It reads conditions inside the crypto market itself — stablecoin flows, altcoin behaviour, leverage and where Bitcoin sits in its long-term price cycle.

Leading Z

A score that looks ahead. It measures the direction of stablecoin flows and futures market positioning to give an early read on where conditions are heading before they show up in price. Positive and rising is constructive.

Coincident basket

The right-now reading. It tracks what financial markets are doing today — equity momentum, the US dollar and volatility. When this lags the leading signal it means markets have not yet confirmed what the macro data is already showing.

Macro fair value

Where Bitcoin should be trading based on the current macro environment, calculated from the historical relationship between the BCI and price. A negative reading means Bitcoin is trading below that level — cheaper than macro conditions historically support.

Divergence

The gap between the leading and coincident baskets. A large positive divergence means leading conditions are improving faster than markets are reflecting. Historically in a Liquidity Bull regime this gap tends to close upward.

Liquidity Bull regime

A specific macro environment where money supply is expanding and credit conditions are not under stress. Historically one of the more supportive backdrops for Bitcoin.

SOPR — Spent Output Profit Ratio

An on-chain measure of whether people moving Bitcoin are doing so at a profit or a loss. Below 1 means sellers are taking losses — typically seen near bottoms. Above 1 means sellers are in profit. The percentile rank shows where the current reading sits relative to the past three years.

Stablecoin deployment

A measure of whether idle capital sitting in stablecoins is moving into the crypto market. Deploying means dry powder is actively moving in — historically a bullish signal. Contracting means capital is pulling out into safety.

Altcoin structure

Tracks whether capital is spreading from Bitcoin into altcoins. When this is negative it means Bitcoin dominance is rising and altcoins are underperforming — capital is concentrated in Bitcoin rather than spreading across the market.

Percentile rank (P)

Shows where a reading sits relative to history. P34 means the current value is higher than 34% of all readings in the past three years. P80 would be near the top of the historical range.

Bottom signal phases

A four-stage checklist the indicators run through before calling a recovery confirmed. All four phases must complete in sequence. Phase 0/4 means the checklist is satisfied structurally but the formal signal has not yet fired.