Weekly market pulse · Week ending Jun 14
Market Pulse
The combined weekly read — what the global economy is telling us about Bitcoin, and what the crypto ecosystem is saying from the inside.
The readings below reflect the current state of macro and crypto-native indicators. They are not buy or sell signals — they are a structured way to read market context. Always do your own research.
The rotation setup is building. Bitcoin dominance is at 59% and still falling, and the indicator now reads the rotation as forming for a third week running. That is the early condition that has historically come before money spreads out of Bitcoin and into altcoins.
This week added the first supporting evidence. The buying that showed up behind the weekly candle is the kind of money flow a real rotation needs. It is one week, but it is the right direction after weeks of the opposite.
The piece still missing is stablecoins. They are pulling back rather than growing, so the dry powder that fuels a full rotation is not building yet. The one past failure of this signal, in May 2022, came with credit warnings in the economy and holders deep underwater. Neither is present now. Watch for stablecoins to start growing as the trigger that turns this from forming into confirmed.
Bitcoin 2-week window closing this week
The Bitcoin 2-week window is now in its twelfth and final week, closing this Sunday. It pivoted at $59,100 at the start of June and price has climbed back to $65,714, with one of three recovery checkpoints passed. This is a bear market window, historically the harder backdrop. Even so, every one of the six past windows of this kind recovered, which is the strongest record on the board.
The price zones to watch sit at $64,859 for a shallow dip, $60,995 in the middle, and $54,095 for a deep flush. Price closed the week at $65,714, just above the shallow zone and well clear of the deeper ones. With the window closing this week, the next report will carry its final outcome.
No other cycle windows are active. The Ethereum daily window from last week has closed.
The Barometer sits at 20.1, just nudging up out of its deepest Bottom band into the Accumulation zone. The score eased slightly on the week but the message is unchanged. Bitcoin is in genuine value territory. The reading is built from 15 on-chain measures, none of which use price patterns, the economy, or sentiment.
The picture is accumulation without panic. Bitcoin is trading right around its long-term average price. Long-term holders are sitting tight rather than selling at a loss, and there is a modest profit cushion across the market rather than the deep underwater positioning seen at true capitulation bottoms. Miners are operating without pressure to sell.
The one nuance worth flagging is early profit-taking among some long-term holders, which is something to keep an eye on. It is not distribution yet, but it is the first thing that would need watching if it builds. Overall the score being this low has historically rewarded patient buyers looking 6 to 12 months out, while not being a precise timing tool.
The Delta Engine reads the actual buying and selling pressure behind each weekly candle. This week it picked up the most important change on the whole board. The order flow flipped from heavy net selling last week to strong net buying this week, a swing of real size. In plain terms, real money moved in behind the bounce rather than it being an empty drift higher.
Despite that, the engine still calls No Signal overall, with the top case at 1 out of 10 and the bottom case at 3 out of 10. The buying is encouraging but it has not yet built the kind of sustained, exhausted-then-reversing pattern that marks a confirmed bottom. One strong green week is a building block, not the finished structure.
This reading does not yet include the sentiment input, which is added midweek. On its own, the order flow this week is the first concrete sign that buyers are stepping back in.
Money supply is growing at 3.67% and the wider economy is still supportive. The macro indicator puts Bitcoin about 16% below where economic conditions historically place it, and still labels it undervalued. As price bounced this week the discount narrowed slightly, but Bitcoin remains clearly cheap on the macro read.
The crypto side is where the real change happened. The backdrop is still deep value. Bitcoin is around its long-term average price, on-chain selling is still in capitulation, and the cycle score is just inside the Accumulation zone. What is new is the money flow. The order flow behind this week’s candle flipped from heavy selling to strong buying, the first concrete sign in weeks that buyers are stepping back in. The crypto ecosystem score ticked up from 5.1 to 7.
For weeks every tool agreed Bitcoin was cheap while none could point to the turn. This week the first piece of that turn arrived. It is one week of buying, not a confirmed reversal, and stablecoins are still pulling back rather than growing. But the picture has shifted from waiting to watching something start. The next confirmation would be the buying holding and stablecoins beginning to grow.
No, and it is not close. The macro indicator has zero of eight warning flags up. Bitcoin is about 16% below where the economy supports it and the indicator still calls it undervalued, which is the opposite of a top. On-chain selling is still happening at a loss, not in profit. The order flow tool scores the top case at just 1 out of 10. Every tool points away from a top.
Closer than it has been, but still not confirmed. The case for cheap is strong and broad. Bitcoin is in the value zone of its cycle, on-chain selling is in capitulation, and the cycle score is at the bottom of its range. This week added the first piece that was missing for weeks. Real money moved in behind the bounce, with the order flow flipping to strong net buying.
What is still needed is follow-through. One green week of buying is a building block, not a confirmed reversal. Stablecoins are still pulling back rather than growing, so the fuel for a sustained move is not building yet. Price has passed only one of three recovery checkpoints. The order flow tool still scores the bottom case at 3 out of 10, encouraging but not decisive. The turn has started to show. It has not been confirmed.
Bitcoin bounced to $65,714 and for the first time in weeks the move had real buying behind it. The order flow flipped from heavy selling to strong net buying, which is the piece that was missing while every tool agreed Bitcoin was cheap. The macro read still calls it undervalued, on-chain selling is still in capitulation, and the cycle score sits at the bottom of its range. Nothing is formally confirmed and stablecoins are still pulling back, so this is one green week rather than a proven reversal. But the turn has started to show. Watch whether the buying holds and stablecoins begin to grow.
You've seen the verdicts and the watch signal. The full Market Pulse includes the deep read of each indicator, scenarios with probability weights, the top/bottom assessment, and the actionable bottom line.