Key Points

  • The Pi Cycle Top requires price pressing the upper band and the 111DMA crossing up through the 350DMA x2. That cross is not even close today.
  • Spot is about 90k, the 111DMA is near 107k, the 350DMA x2 is around 205k. Price is beneath both and the bands are not converging.
  • Prior cycle highs formed with a clear squeeze into the top band, a steeply rising 111DMA, and then the cross. Today we have a flatter curve and a recent loss of the 111DMA.
  • The 111DMA often acts as a trend guide. Retests late in a trend are common before any real top.
  • KAIROS, as Oz discussed in the members’ video on 8 December, has the weekly low window open and the monthly high window pencilled for early Q1. Time still allows for further development.
  • I pivot only if 111DMA accelerates and actually crosses 350DMA x2 within that early-Q1 high window, and daily KAIROS shows a failed FLD reclaim.