What Is the RHODL Ratio?

RHODL Ratio compares the realised value held by young coins with the realised value held by older coins to gauge where wealth is concentrated across age bands. In practice it contrasts very recent coins (for example, 1 week) against older holders (for example, 1–2 years). When the ratio rises, realised value tilts toward newer hands; when it falls, older hands dominate.

Bitcoin RHODL Ratio (monthly): Source BGeometrics
This chart shows the balance between young and old realised value, highlighting areas linked with late-cycle risk and deep-cycle accumulation.

How Is RHODL Ratio Calculated?

  • Start with Realised HODL Waves (realised value allocated by coin age).
  • Take the realised value in a young band (commonly 1 week).
  • Divide by the realised value in an older band (commonly 1–2 years).
  • Many dashboards apply smoothing or scaling to improve readability.

Exact implementations vary slightly across providers. Focus on the young vs old realised value balance, not a single fixed number.

Why RHODL Matters

  • Cycle lens: High readings often align with periods when recent buyers dominate, a hallmark of late bull phases; low readings align with periods where older capital holds sway.
  • Rotation tell: Rising RHODL can flag redistribution from patient holders to newcomers; falling RHODL points to consolidation in stronger hands.
  • Context for valuations: Paired with valuation and spending metrics, RHODL helps judge whether advances are broad-based or driven by short-term wealth transfer.

Interpreting Zones

Treat these as guides, not triggers; regimes can migrate as the market matures.

  • Depressed zone: older bands dominate realised value; common during late bear and early recovery periods.
  • Rising mid-zone: participation broadens; watch confluence to separate sustainable advances from froth.
  • Elevated zone: young bands dominate realised value; historically where distribution risk increases.

Practical Reads

  • Inflections matter: a turn up from depressed levels often coincides with improving participation; a roll-over from elevated levels can precede cooling.
  • Duration over prints: short spikes can be noise; sustained elevation carries more weight.
  • Cross-check cohorts: combine with STH/LTH profitability to see who is actually under pressure.

Use RHODL With Confluence

Pair with:

  • Realised Price Bands (Market/LTH/STH): is rising RHODL meeting firm cost-basis support or thin air?
  • SOPR / Realised PnL: are newer coins realising profit into the market, or is absorption strong?
  • Dormancy / CDD: are older coins actually moving, or is RHODL rising purely from young-coin value?

Common Pitfalls

  • Treating a single threshold as universal across cycles.
  • Ignoring smoothing and provider differences in age buckets.
  • Reading RHODL in isolation without checking whether old supply is truly rotating.

A Simple Workflow You Can Reuse

a remote control sitting on top of a desk next to two computer monitors
Photo by Jakub Żerdzicki / Unsplash
  1. Open RHODL Ratio (weekly) and note level and direction.
  2. Check Market/LTH/STH Realised Price for valuation support.
  3. Confirm behaviour with aSOPR and Realised PnL.
  4. Scan Dormancy/CDD to validate whether older coins are in motion.
  5. Decide: broadening participation with support, or late-phase risk with distribution.

FAQ

Is high RHODL automatically bearish?
No. Elevated readings can persist while demand absorbs supply. Risk rises when elevation coincides with distribution signals elsewhere.

Which timeframe works best?
Weekly for cycle reads. Daily is mainly for timing once the regime is clear.

How does RHODL differ from HODL Waves?
HODL Waves visualise age distribution. RHODL compresses that information into a single ratio of young vs old realised value.

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