Introduction

Every bull cycle, Bitcoin moves first, confidence returns, and then the same question appears in every Telegram group and X space… is altseason here yet?

Most traders never define altseason properly. They chase whatever is trending, confuse random memecoin pumps with real rotation, and end up exiting too early from strong names or buying exhausted charts.

In this guide we at Markets Unplugged set out a clear, data driven way to think about altseason in Bitcoin and crypto using dominance, the Alt Season Index and simple timing rules you can apply every cycle.

Key Points

  • Altseason is not a single day of green candles, it is a period where capital rotates out from Bitcoin into Ethereum and the wider altcoin market in a sustained way.
  • The best way to track altseason is with a combination of Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum dominance, “Others” or Total3 market cap, and an Alt Season Index, not just one chart.
  • In most cycles Bitcoin leads, Ethereum follows, and then higher risk alts accelerate once BTC dominance breaks lower and ETH dominance starts to trend higher.
  • Our KAIROS timing framework maps high, low and turn windows so you are planning entries and exits ahead of time rather than reacting to noise.
  • A simple workflow built around a watchlist, dominance levels and pre planned trim targets is more reliable than hunting for one perfect altseason signal.

What Is Altseason?

Altseason, or alt season, is a period in the Bitcoin cycle where:

  • Bitcoin has already delivered a strong move from the lows.
  • Confidence and liquidity have returned to the market.
  • Capital begins to rotate into Ethereum and then into a broader set of altcoins.

The key word is rotation. In a genuine altseason, Bitcoin does not usually collapse. Instead, Bitcoin’s dominance trends lower while Ethereum dominance and the total value of altcoins trend higher. Money steps out along the risk curve rather than leaving the market altogether.

Altseason often arrives in waves. Early on, capital flows into higher quality names with strong narratives and liquidity. Only later, if conditions remain supportive, do speculative microcaps and memecoins enjoy their own mini cycles.

Why Altseason Starts With Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains the reserve asset of crypto. Most fresh capital enters the market through Bitcoin, and many large players manage risk against it.

Because of that, altseason normally depends on a few preconditions:

  • Bitcoin has broken out of a long accumulation phase and established a convincing uptrend.
  • Larger participants have profits and confidence in that trend.
  • Volatility has risen enough to attract attention, but not so much that it destroys risk appetite.

When those conditions are met, some participants choose to take part of their Bitcoin gains and allocate to Ethereum or selected altcoins. This is the first step in altseason… and it shows up clearly on dominance and market cap charts.

Metrics That Define Altseason

There is no single metric that defines altseason. Instead, we at Markets Unplugged treat altseason as a combination of four main signals.

1. Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) measures Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market cap. In a Bitcoin led phase, BTC.D often grinds higher as capital concentrates in Bitcoin.

For altseason, the behaviour flips. A sustained downtrend in BTC.D after a strong Bitcoin move is usually the first sign that capital is rotating out along the risk curve rather than leaving crypto.

2. Ethereum Dominance

Ethereum dominance (ETH.D) is a useful bridge between Bitcoin and the wider altcoin market.

An early altseason tell is when:

  • BTC.D stops trending up or starts drifting down.
  • ETH.D begins to trend higher, often into a materially stronger range for the cycle.

This tells you that capital is not just leaving Bitcoin, it is being re deployed into Ethereum as the next stage of the cycle.

Ethereum / Bitcoin Weekly Chart (ETHBTC): Source Oz.

This chart shows Ethereum breaking up through a multi month downtrend line and reclaiming a key weekly level. When ETHBTC behaves like this while ETH dominance is rising, it often marks the handover from a Bitcoin led phase into an Ethereum led phase that can precede full altseason.

3. “Others” Or Total3 Market Cap

“Others” market cap (sometimes labelled Total3, which is the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) gives a big picture view of altcoin capital.

When altseason is developing, you will often see:

  • Clear higher highs and higher lows on the Others or Total3 chart.
  • Reclaims of important prior levels or ranges that acted as resistance.
  • Rising volume as traders finally pay attention to alts again.

Instead of watching hundreds of tickers individually, this one chart tells you whether altcoins as a group are actually gaining value.

Bitcoin Versus Altcoin Market Cap Ratio (Weekly, Excluding Stablecoins): Source Oz.

This weekly ratio compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the rest of the crypto market excluding stablecoins. The recent spike shows how dominant Bitcoin has been versus altcoins. The current pullback and the marked support bands highlight where a genuine shift towards altseason could begin if this ratio starts trending down inside a relevant KAIROS window.

4. The Alt Season Index

The Alt Season Index, in its different versions, aims to summarise whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over a defined period. Popular examples include the CMC Altcoin Season Index, which looks at how many of the top 100 coins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days, and the CoinGlass Altcoin Season Index, which labels conditions as Bitcoin season or altcoin season based on recent relative performance.

Most of these indices work by measuring the performance of a basket of altcoins against Bitcoin over a set time window, then classifying the environment as Bitcoin season, altseason or neutral depending on how many alts are beating Bitcoin. They are useful because they compress a lot of information into a single line and give you a quick read on whether altcoins, as a group, are starting to outperform.

At Markets Unplugged we treat the Alt Season Index as context, not a trading signal. On its own it can be noisy, especially around narrative spikes. Combined with Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum dominance, Others or Total3 market cap, and our KAIROS timing windows, it becomes a helpful cross check. If all of those layers are pointing towards alt outperformance inside a relevant KAIROS window, there is a much stronger case that altseason is active or approaching.

How The Alt Season Index Fits Into Your Workflow

An index is useful because it compresses a lot of information into one line. The danger is treating it as a standalone trigger.

A better way to use the Alt Season Index is to:

  • Treat it as confirmation when other metrics already suggest rotation.
  • Treat it as a warning when it spikes into extreme readings while BTC.D and ETH.D show exhaustion.
  • Treat it as a context layer, not a trading signal.

For example, if the Alt Season Index is high but BTC.D is still firm and Others or Total3 is not really breaking out, you may be looking at local hype in a few sectors rather than true altseason.

Timing Altseason: Windows, Not Single Days

At Markets Unplugged we use our KAIROS framework to think about time. Instead of hunting for a precise day when altseason begins or ends, KAIROS maps high and low windows where important turns in Bitcoin and altcoins tend to cluster.

Applied to altseason, that leads to a few simple ideas:

  • Altseason often lives inside a broader Bitcoin cycle, not separate from it.
  • Bitcoin high windows and Bitcoin dominance highs often precede the strongest altseason waves.
  • Within those windows, confirmation comes from FLD crosses, trendline breaks and price action on dominance and Others charts.

This approach stops you from reacting to every meme pump. You know whether you are in or near a likely altseason window, then you wait for the evidence on dominance and market cap charts before adjusting exposure.

How KAIROS Works At Markets Unplugged

KAIROS is our in house timing framework for crypto. We use it to estimate the dominant market cycle, project half and full cycle guides into the future, and highlight windows where highs, lows or turns tend to cluster.

The core principles are:

  • Structure time, not noise. KAIROS turns the chart into a calendar of relevance, so you know which weeks and days matter and which are just background.
  • Wait for confirmation. Inside a KAIROS window we look for simple tells such as an FLD cross, a clean break of a key level or a clear shift in volume and behaviour, then we act according to plan rather than improvising.
  • Trade less, better. Most days are not special. KAIROS makes that visible so discipline feels natural. You plan scenarios ahead of each window and execute only when the market proves it.

For members, KAIROS appears each week as:

  • A forward map of high, low and turn windows for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  • Scenario notes for what would confirm or invalidate the idea inside each window.
  • Case studies of how prior windows resolved, so the timing edge improves over time.

Altseason sits inside that timing map. We care less about guessing the exact candle where an alt breaks out, and more about aligning altseason bets with the windows where Bitcoin, BTC.D and Others are most likely to shift.

Altseason sits inside that timing map. We care less about guessing the exact candle where an alt breaks out, and more about aligning altseason bets with the windows where Bitcoin, BTC.D and Others are most likely to shift.

If you want the full detail on how we build those windows, read our KAIROS guide.

round white and brown wall clock
Photo by Srikanta H. U / Unsplash


KAIROS highlights high, low and turn windows on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Combining those timing windows with an Alt Season Index signal helps you plan altseason entries and exits ahead of time.

A Simple Altseason Preparation Workflow

You do not need a complicated dashboard. A clean altseason checklist might look like this:

  • Track BTC.D, ETH.D, Others or Total3 and your chosen Alt Season Index on a weekly chart.
  • Mark clear levels on each chart where a trend change would be obvious.
  • Keep a focused watchlist of altcoins you actually understand, grouped by narrative and market cap.
  • Define ahead of time how you will scale in and, more importantly, where you will trim into strength.

When Bitcoin is strong, BTC.D starts to drift lower, ETH.D pushes higher and Others or Total3 breaks up through your marked levels with volume, you have a rational case for altseason rather than a feeling.

Common Altseason Traps To Avoid

Several traps repeat every cycle:

  • Treating random memecoin rallies as proof that altseason has started.
  • Assuming every coin will revisit its prior all time high simply because the Alt Season Index is elevated.
  • Ignoring Bitcoin and dominance charts because “this time is different”.
  • Entering large positions into thin liquidity names late in the move, after the Alt Season Index is already extreme.
a spider web with dew drops on it
Photo by Wyxina Tresse / Unsplash

Altseason is powerful, but it is still governed by liquidity, risk management and cycle timing. Respecting those constraints is what keeps you in the game for the next one.

Mini FAQs

Is altseason guaranteed every Bitcoin cycle?
No. Some cycles deliver strong, broad altseason waves, others are dominated by Bitcoin and a few large names. Treat altseason as a possibility, not a promise.

Can altseason start before Bitcoin peaks?
Yes. In practice there is often overlap. Bitcoin may still be trending higher while capital begins to rotate into Ethereum and select altcoins. The key is what BTC.D, ETH.D and Others or Total3 are doing, not whether Bitcoin has set a final high.

Do I need an Alt Season Index to trade altcoins?
You can trade altcoins without one, but an index adds context. It helps you see whether your wins are part of a broad rotation or just a few isolated names.

If This Helped You, Here Is How To Go Deeper

The free guides on The Markets Unplugged will give you the foundations, but altseason is where clear planning really matters.

Alpha Insider members get:

➡️ Kairos timing windows to plan entries before the crowd moves
➡️ A full DCA Targets page with levels mapped for this cycle
➡️ Exclusive member videos breaking down charts in plain English
➡️ A private Telegram community where conviction is shared daily

This isn’t noise… it is the full playbook.

Nothing in this article is financial, investment or trading advice. It is educational information only, based on historical market behaviour and internal frameworks used by The Markets Unplugged. Cryptoassets are highly volatile and you can lose all the capital you commit. Always do your own research, size positions responsibly, and consult a qualified professional if you are unsure whether any strategy is appropriate for your circumstances.