Bitcoin may have tapped $85.5K this week, and sentiment on Crypto Twitter is moving like it's 2021 all over again. But under the surface, the on-chain data points to something quieter — something more structural.

The Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator remains firmly in neutral ground, signalling mid-cycle conviction rather than late-stage greed. Despite the sharp candles and loud opinions, the data hasn’t overheated.

This analysis breaks down where we are now, what past cycles reveal, and why current positioning suggests there’s still room to run.