Is Bitcoin Overheated? Is It Done? Or Is Something Quietly Moving Beneath It?

Introduction & Market Context

June opens with Bitcoin hovering around $104K — a slight drawdown from last week’s local highs, but still structurally composed. From the outside, price looks stalled. Under the surface, nothing’s cracked.

This builds directly off last week’s weekly view — where I said the door was still open, but narrowing. That still holds… and what’s most important this week is what hasn’t happened.

There’s no collapse in long-term holder supply. No blow-off in valuation. No miner stress. And even with a local cooldown, conviction has remained the dominant force across the chain.

What’s new this month is the subtle shift in flow dynamics…

Short-term profit taking has increased slightly. Dormancy metrics like CDD and VDD are stirring again. SOPR just kissed the 1.0 line. These aren’t full-blown rotation signals — but they are early sparks.

So I’m keeping it simple: