The last three weeks show a clear transition from a potential local bottom to early signs of recovery. Let's break them down:

📊 Weekly Comparison Analysis (24/02/2025 - 10/03/2025)

Metric24/02/202503/03/202510/03/2025Interpretation
Buy/Sell Ratio89:10097:100106:100Buyers started weak but gained control in Week 3.
Delta Volume-535M-229M-30MSelling pressure decreasing week over week, suggesting seller exhaustion.
Total Volume (B)5.69B5.5B3.65BVolume dropped sharply in Week 3 → lower participation, possible reversal brewing.
POC (Point of Control)AboveBelowAboveSellers controlled Week 2, but buyers regained control in Week 3.
Weekly Closing Price$94,248$80,601$82,520Large price drop in Week 2, but Week 3 showed stability and a slight rebound.
Open InterestClosedClosedClosedMarket is in profit-taking mode, reducing speculative leverage.
Candlestick PatternLong Lower ShadowBig RedSpinning Top WhiteA reversal attempt failed in Week 2, but Week 3 indecision suggests a turning point.
Candle ColorRedRedGreenFirst two weeks were bearish, but Week 3 flipped bullish.

🔍 Key Observations

1️⃣ Seller Exhaustion & Buy-Side Interest Increasing

  • Week 1: Heavy selling (-535M delta), long lower wick shows demand at lows.
  • Week 2: Another major sell-off (-229M delta), but less aggressive than Week 1.
  • Week 3: Minimal selling (-30M delta) & buyers outpaced sellers (106:100) → Shift in market sentiment.

2️⃣ Volume Drop Suggests Price Stability

  • Week 1: 5.69B → Week 2: 5.5B → Week 3: 3.65B
  • Week 3’s significant drop in volume means market participants are hesitant → Often precedes a trend shift.

3️⃣ POC Shift Shows Market Rebalancing

  • Week 1: POC Above → Buyers had some control
  • Week 2: POC Below → Sellers took full control
  • Week 3: POC Above Again → Buyers fighting back

4️⃣ Candlestick Patterns & Structure Favour a Short-Term Rebound

  • Week 1: Long lower shadow → Buyers defended lows, but selling pressure dominated.
  • Week 2: Big Red → Continuation of the downtrend, but selling pressure was reduced.
  • Week 3: Spinning Top White → Market indecision, but green candle suggests a shift toward bulls.

📈 Possible Next Week Predictions

ScenarioProbabilityWhat to Look For
Short-Term Rebound (55%) 📈Most likelyWatch if price holds above $82,000 and volume starts increasing. A push towards $84,000 - $85,000 is expected.
Sideways Consolidation (30%) ⏸Moderate chanceIf volume stays low, expect range-bound movement between $81,500 - $83,500. Market may wait for a catalyst.
Further Decline (15%) 📉UnlikelyIf new selling pressure emerges, price could retest $80,000. This scenario needs a resurgence in volume & OI closing negatively.

Key Levels to Watch Next Week

  • $81,500 - $80,000 → Bearish Breakdown Zone (If price dips below, sellers regain control).
  • $84,500 - $85,000 → Bullish Reversal Confirmation (Needs volume & rising OI to sustain).
  • Open Interest Reopening? → If new OI comes in, it must favor longs for continuation upwards.

📢 Final Thoughts:

  • Sellers are clearly exhausted, and buyers are attempting a turnaround.
  • A bounce is favoured, but bulls must reclaim $85,000+ for true confirmation.