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KAIROS cycle timing

Cycle Low Dashboard

KAIROS maps probable cycle-low zones across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and macro markets. Not a signal system — a timing framework built on four years of cycle research.

v7.1
Current version
—
Last updated
4+
Years of data
Access tier
Alpha Pro
and above
Live zones, drop targets,
recovery tracking
Methodology & caveats

KAIROS identifies historical cycle-low zones of interest using nested cycle analysis. A zone is not a confirmed bottom — confirmation comes when price reclaims its reference levels across three recovery stages.

📐
Hit rate — historical frequency of clean recoveries from past windows on the same asset, timeframe, and market context. Not a prediction, and it carries a base rate: in rising markets, randomly chosen periods often resolve higher too.
📏
Median move — measured from the cycle pivot, not current price. Bear-context windows have historically been harder than bull-context windows.
📊
Drop zone — how far below the window-open price the pivot has historically fallen. Q1 is the shallow end, median the midpoint, Q3 the deep end.
⚠️
Nothing here is financial advice. Always do your own research. Past windows do not guarantee future performance.
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Window history
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Window history
Every window scored once it closes, misses included
Full history for members
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Hit rate is the share of closed windows that produced a clean recovery. Historical frequencies, not predictions: in rising markets, randomly chosen periods often resolve higher too.

How KAIROS works

Three layers of analysis combined into a single cycle-timing read. No single indicator drives the output.

01
Nested cycle identification
KAIROS maps short, intermediate, and long-degree cycles simultaneously. When multiple cycle degrees align at the same zone, the probability of a meaningful low increases significantly.
02
Historical window validation
Every active zone is measured against every comparable window in the data set — same asset, same timeframe, same market context. Hit rate, median move, and drop zone are derived from that sample.
03
Recovery stage tracking
A zone is not a confirmed low until price reclaims its reference levels. KAIROS tracks three sequential recovery stages in real time, so you know exactly where confirmation stands.
Real example: the most recent closed Bitcoin weekly window Live zones for Alpha Pro and above
BITCOIN Weekly
Window opened 5 Jan 2026 at $90,872
Cycle low $59,930 on 2 Feb 2026
Closed · Hit
Drop before the low
-34%
window open to the low
Move from the low
+38%
to about $82,835
Result
Hit
clean recovery
Recovery All three reference levels reclaimed

A real window, not a best case: price fell a further 34% after the window opened before the low formed, which is why members see a drop zone for every live window. Live zones, drop targets and recovery tracking are for Alpha Pro members and above.

What members see

Every active zone across the tracked universe, updated in real time.

📐
Hit rate by context
Historical rate of clean recoveries from past windows matching the same asset, timeframe, and market context (bull vs bear). Quoted separately — no mixing.
🎯
Drop zone targets
Q1, median, and Q3 price levels showing how far the cycle pivot has historically fallen below the window-open price. Current price shown on the same scale.
📈
Median move from pivot
The IQR of historical moves from each cycle pivot — Q1 to Q3 range and median. Measured from the pivot, not from current price, so the math is accurate.
🔄
Recovery stage tracking
Three-stage confirmation system. Stage 1 is the first reclaim, Stage 3 is full structural confirmation. You see exactly where each zone stands.
🌐
Multi-asset coverage
BTC, ETH, SPX, and Gold tracked simultaneously. When multiple assets hit cycle-low zones together, the cross-asset signal is surfaced explicitly.
⏱️
Window close countdown
Every zone has a close date. The dashboard shows how many days or weeks remain in the window, expressed in the timeframe's native unit.

Assets tracked

KAIROS runs across multiple timeframes for each asset — daily, weekly, and monthly windows all monitored.

Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
S&P 500 (SPX)
Gold
Alpha Pro membership

Unlock the full KAIROS dashboard

Live cycle-low zones, drop targets, hit rates, and recovery tracking across BTC, ETH, SPX, and Gold. Updated in real time.

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