The Markets Unplugged · Members only
Ethereum Barometer
One number, 0 to 100, for where Ethereum sits in its own cycle. Measured against its own on-chain history, updated weekly, with Doc's read on what moved and why. It tells you the level, not the turn.
This week's score
One number and one zone, updated weekly, with the change from the previous week.
Doc's weekly read
What moved the number and why, written against this week's data rather than recycled.
The full history
Every weekly score since 2015 on one chart, with the Merge marked as a regime seam.
What is driving it
Family scores for value, profit-taking, holder behaviour and long-held coins.
Confidence and coverage
How complete this week's inputs were and how close the reading sits to a zone line.
The forward record
Every reading at a confirmed high or low, registered ahead of time and graded later.
What it is not
Not a proven cycle-caller. It reads where Ethereum sits, not when that changes, and a cheap reading can hold for months or fall further. The post-Merge era has produced one major top so far, so the top of the range rests on limited recent history. The forward record starts empty on purpose. None of it is financial advice.
Unlock the Ethereum Barometer.
Included with Alpha Insider and Cycle Intelligence, alongside the full research stack.
The Markets Unplugged
Ethereum Barometer
One number, 0 to 100, for where Ethereum sits in its own cycle, from the deepest accumulation to overheated, measured against its own on-chain history. It reads the level, not the turn: where the cycle stands today, not when it will change. You bring your own plan to it.
This reads where Ethereum sits in its cycle. It is not advice to buy or sell. Always do your own research.
In past cycles Ethereum has stayed in the deepest and the hottest bands for months at a time, and which day marked the actual low or high was only clear well after it had passed. A reading at either end tells you where the cycle stands, not that it is about to turn.
The on-chain metrics, and where each sits against Ethereum's own history.
The zone label, and what it implies about cycle position.
Whether the barometer calls turns with skill. That is being tested forward, in the open.
Deep accumulation
The deepest band the engine tracks, reached only in the rarest stretches of Ethereum's history.
Accumulation
Low in the cycle, the broad base below the middle of the range where past downturns have largely sat.
Mid-cycle
Neither early nor stretched. The middle of the range.
Late-cycle
Past the midpoint, into the richer half of the range.
Heated
Well into the upper range, where profit-taking has usually picked up.
Overheated
Near the most stretched on-chain readings in Ethereum's record.
One limit worth knowing
The score reads Ethereum's full history, and the heated end draws on several past cycle peaks. Within the post-Merge era specifically, only one major top has formed so far, around the 2025 highs, and issuance changed at the Merge. So treat an overheated reading as a reason to look closer, not a settled verdict. The lower and middle zones rest on far more history and carry more weight.
What this is
A disciplined, on-chain context engine with a confidence layer and a live forward record.
What it is not
A proven cycle-caller. It has been tested at known highs and lows on both sides of the Merge, but the post-Merge era has produced one major top so far, so the top end rests on limited recent history. It will not be presented as more certain than the evidence allows.
How this is built
The score compares today against Ethereum's own history. Each week it asks where the current reading falls against everything the chain has done before, then turns that into one number from 0 to 100. A low number means Ethereum sits at the low end of its own on-chain range. A high number means it sits near the top of that range. The same reading is shown as a zone, from accumulation to overheated, so you can place it at a glance.
Two honest points matter. The score reads Ethereum's whole on-chain history on one scale, ranked against itself. The Merge in September 2022 changed how the network issues supply, so it is marked as a regime line and a couple of supply measures are handled with that in mind, but the history is not split into "scored" and "unscored". It has been tested at known highs and lows on both sides of that line. The one limit is that the post-Merge era has produced a single major top so far, so the very top of the range rests on less recent history. And the score reads the level, not the turn. It tells you where Ethereum sits in its range, not the week that changes. It is one input to read next to your own plan, not a call to buy or sell, and none of it is financial advice.