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© 2026 The Markets Unplugged · Data in. Conviction out. - Published with Ghost & Aspect

This Volatility Spike Wasn’t a Top — It Was the Setup

  • Oz by Oz
    Oz Oz
    Co-founder and lead technical analyst at The Markets Unplugged. Leads technical, macro, and cycle analysis, and builds the timing and macro frameworks behind TMU's premium research. Instructor on the Cycle Intelligence course.
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  • May 28, 2025
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  • 3 min read
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This Volatility Spike Wasn’t a Top — It Was the Setup
Photo by Dan Seddon / Unsplash
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A Misread Signal: What the Volatility Spike Really Meant

In April 2025, panic surged through macro feeds as a sharp volatility spike set off alarms across trader circles. But beneath the noise, the structure was not signalling collapse—it was showing a reset. To understand what truly unfolded, we start with the chart that most misread.

This chart shows the VIX9D/VIX3M ratio, a measure of short-term vs. mid-term volatility structure, plotted weekly from 2014 to 2025. Spikes into the upper red band reflect hedging imbalances, not directional tops.

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Oz Oz
Co-founder and lead technical analyst at The Markets Unplugged. Leads technical, macro, and cycle analysis, and builds the timing and macro frameworks behind TMU's premium research. Instructor on the Cycle Intelligence course.
  • Website
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The Markets Unplugged · Data in. Conviction out.
  • Home
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© 2026 The Markets Unplugged · Data in. Conviction out. - Published with Ghost & Aspect
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