Despite a 1.6% rally in the S&P 500, today’s session offers far more beneath the surface than a straightforward risk-on rebound. The volatility complex — encompassing short-, medium-, and long-term gauges — is unwinding. However, the pace and shape of this unwind suggest the market is not moving into a zone of stability, but rather coiling for the next macro inflection. When volatility compresses this fast, it rarely stays dormant.

Let’s examine each component in detail.