Bitcoin made its first weekly close above the May high this week, while the bond market had everyone nervous. Here is what was worth your time, in five cards.

1. The bond scare, explained

Everyone is talking about bonds. The yield curve can only move four ways, and each one says something different. For the last few weeks it has been the tightening one: short rates rising faster than long ones, the market pricing tighter policy. This week that move stalled.

The four ways the yield curve moves: bull steepener, bear steepener, bull flattener and bear flattener.

2. The crowd is still bearish

US investors have been bearish nine weeks out of ten. The last two times the crowd was this gloomy, Bitcoin went in opposite directions over the following 13 weeks. A bearish crowd is context, not a timing tool.

AAII investor sentiment: bearish for ten weeks, and what Bitcoin did the last two times.

What credit and rates are saying this week is in the free Market Pulse.

3. Scored this week: the altcoin market

In the members video on 14 September, the altcoin market outside the top ten was at $203bn and the call was a move to $240bn. Sunday's weekly close was $253.6bn. Scored as a hit, on a weekly close. The $270bn upper end is still open.

Receipt: the altcoin market called at $203bn on 14 September, closed at $253.6bn on 27 September.

4. A public call, three months on

On 10 June, with Bitcoin at $61,141, the post was "This is a likely path for $btc": a dip first, then the run. The dip went deeper than drawn, to $57,748 on 1 July. The high so far is $87,385, and last week closed at $84,442. Right on direction, wrong on how deep the dip went. Both are on the record.

Receipt: the 10 June Bitcoin path post, the 1 July low and the high so far.

Every call, hits and misses side by side: Every Call Scored.

5. What members read in July

The low came on 1 July. On 7 July, members read that the selling was drying up week by week. Bitcoin held the low, ranged for six weeks, and broke out in August. We only show it now because it has resolved. Live calls stay with members.

What members read in July: the low, the 7 July members update, and what happened next.

The full story, with the dated posts: The July low, on the record.

The next July

The work matters most when nobody is reading. If you want the members updates while they still matter, not after they resolve, here is what each plan includes.

Membership: Alpha Pro $299 a year, Alpha Insider $549 a year, and the free public record.

See the plans

Research, not financial advice. Every call is scored in public, misses included.