Bitcoin ran more than 50% off the July low, then gave back about 7% this week, and the panic arrived right on cue. It stopped at a level members had been told to watch on Monday. Here is the week in five.

1. Where the drop stopped

From about $86,600, Bitcoin fell to a low of $80,335 on Thursday, just through the fresh monthly level at $80,500, and bounced. That level was the one I flagged in Monday's members video, because momentum had been fading: the week before closed as a spinning top on $28bn of new longs, against $178bn three weeks earlier.

A wick is not a hold. What counts is a week or two of weekly closes above the monthly level, then a move back into $82,000 to $83,000. This year has one of each: April's monthly level broke and price went on to new lows; June's held and became the base for the big move. This week closes tonight.

The full walkthrough is free on YouTube: Bitcoin rallied 50% then dropped 7%. So why is everyone panicking?

Bitcoin tests the monthly level: the stall, the $80,500 level, and the reclaim of $82k to $83.5k.

Pro members got the full write-up on Friday: the order flow day by day, which way the positioning can unwind, and the scenario for the rest of Q4.

2. Scored this week

The altcoin market outside the top ten made its third weekly close in a row above its bottom zone on 4 October, eight weeks before the deadline. Called in the members video on 14 September. Scored as a hit.

The record now stands at 35 calls: 15 hit, 2 missed, 18 open. Every one is on the same page, misses included: Every Call Scored.

3. Two new calls on the record

Monday's members video added two calls, both resolving on 14 December: Altcoin market extension and Bitcoin top range. Members have the levels and the dates now. Everyone else sees the terms when they resolve, hit or miss.

4. Credit is under strain

Low-grade credit is in a shock. The weakest borrowers are paying more to borrow; the stronger ones are fine for now. That is worth watching alongside crypto, not a reason to panic on its own. Where credit, rates and money supply sit each week is in the free Market Pulse, updated every Monday.

5. Free reading this week

Get the read while it matters

This week members knew which level to watch before the drop, and Pro members had the full read on Friday while the level was being tested. Free members get the record afterwards. If you want it while it still matters:

  • Alpha Pro, $299 a year: every Oz Update in full, like Friday's, plus the full Alt Strength Board.
  • Alpha Insider, $549 a year: everything in Pro, plus the Monday members video with the levels, DCA Targets, the full Delta Engine, Market Pulse in full and the private Telegram.
Membership: Alpha Pro $299 a year, Alpha Insider $549 a year, and the free public record.
See the plans

Research, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Every call is scored in public, misses included.