Volatility Signals Before Tops

Bears are calling a top while short-dated volatility remains subdued. In my view, major tops do not emerge from nap-time volatility… they tend to form after a lull, then a clear turn higher in short-term vol. The right way to read it is through the VIX 9-Day to VIX 3-Month ratio, with attention on thresholds and persistence, not headlines.