The Month Unplugged
October 2026
Binance was hacked for about $6.3bn on 29 October, and price made its low the next day.
Three calls hit and one missed, and the miss is written up in full below.
$83,624 to $77,582
$2,686 to $2,256
$253.6bn to $215.8bn
from 58.3% on 1 Oct
2 October
30 October
the May high ($82,824)
29 October
Bitcoin and Ethereum both closed October below September's opening price, so each red month swallowed the green month before it. Ethereum fell more than twice as far as Bitcoin, and Bitcoin's share of the market rose, which is the opposite of what an altcoin season looks like.
Binance BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT monthly candles. *Altcoin market (TradingView CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS) is the last weekly close of September to the last weekly close of October. Dominance from TMU data.
The dashed line is the May high, the level September broke above. October held it for two weekly closes, lost it on 18 October and never got it back. The hack candle on the 29th took price to the month's low on the 30th.
| Call | Where | When | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin holds above its $57,748 low through October | Public on X | 10 June to 14 July | Hit. It never traded below. October's low was $76,326 |
| Ethereum holds above its $1,505 low until 31 October | Public on X | 11 June | Hit. Closest was $1,512 on 26 June. October's low was $2,174 |
| The altcoin market leaves its bottom zone by 30 November | Member video | 14 September | Hit on 4 October. Third weekly close in a row above the line, eight weeks early |
| Bitcoin dominance breaks down in October: a weekly close below 57.17% | Member video | 14 September | Miss. Dominance rose instead, closing every October week between 58.6% and 59.5% |
In September I said Bitcoin's share of the crypto market would break down in October, and I gave a number: a weekly close below 57.17%. The idea was simple. When Bitcoin's share falls, money is moving into altcoins, and that is when they make their big moves.
It went the other way. Every October week closed higher than 57.17%, and by the end of the month dominance was at 59.5%. When Bitcoin lost the May high, money didn't rotate into altcoins. It came out of them first, and the altcoin market fell faster than Bitcoin.
The breakdown is taking longer than I expected. What I underweighted is what it is waiting for. Dominance breaks down when money gets cheap again, and right now it isn't: rates and borrowing costs are still high. The big breaks in dominance have also tended to come when Bitcoin is close to its all-time high or past it, and Bitcoin isn't there yet.
The chart pattern I was reading is still there. What I got wrong was the timing, and I put a one-month deadline on it. The other dominance call on the record, at the same level, runs to 14 December and stays open. I'll only make a new one when the conditions behind it are in place.
When price falls fast, most people assume everyone is selling out. Sometimes that's true: traders holding longs give up, their positions close, and the selling burns itself out.
Hack night wasn't that. As Bitcoin fell from about $80,800 to under $77,000, futures open interest, the number of open positions, rose by 8,672 BTC. Traders weren't closing positions. They were opening new shorts into the drop. That's a different market: one where a lot of fresh shorts sit near the lows and would have to buy back if price turns.
Price alone can't show you which one you're looking at. The Tape can, because it reads who is opening and who is closing, as it happens.
- The live order book on Binance and Coinbase: which walls are real and which get pulled before price arrives
- Futures positioning: new longs, new shorts, or positions closing, minute by minute
- Flashes to the Insider Telegram when something worth acting on happens, each with its timeframe
- A Daily Scenarios read at 8am UK: the few things that matter for the day ahead
October showed why altcoins need more than a chart. Ethereum fell 16% and the altcoin market about 15%, roughly twice as far as Bitcoin, and the coins that held up and the coins that didn't looked the same on price until it was too late.
The Desk is Doc's altcoin evidence desk. It ranks the sectors by what people actually pay to use them, this month against last, and ranks every alt inside its own sector, updated every day, so you can see which sectors are filling, which are emptying, and where your alt sits. It opens to Alpha Insider members in mid-November, and the first worked example will be in next month's issue.
The May high. Bitcoin has closed two weeks below $82,824. Each weekly close in November either adds to that or takes the level back.
The hack. Binance says it has now covered about 95% of the stolen amount from its own funds, that Bitcoin, Ethereum and the main stablecoins are fully backed, and that the last 5% is smaller tokens it is still buying. Withdrawals, suspended since the hack, began reopening in phases on 1 November, starting with the major coins and networks. Binance says it will publish a full incident report once the investigation is complete.
The scorecard. Nothing resolves in November. Eight calls resolve on 13 and 14 December, and they'll be scored here in the December issue, hit or miss.
Members see all 16 open calls with their full terms today, as they are made. Everyone else sees them here the month they resolve, hit or miss. The Month Unplugged stays free either way.
The Month Unplugged is the monthly record of what was called and what happened, published with the misses alongside the hits. Members read each of these calls the week it was made, in Oz Updates and the Monday member video.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
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