Traders often focus on the Fed Funds Rate, CPI headlines, or jobs data. But beneath the surface, there’s a quieter, more revealing indicator — SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate). Oz refers to it as the market’s heartbeat, and in hindsight, it was the only signal that mattered in the run-up to 2020.

As volatility builds again in 2025, the same pattern is unfolding. SOFR is calm, but conditions around it are tightening. The last time this happened, markets didn’t adjust — they snapped.