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© 2026 The Markets Unplugged · Data in. Conviction out. - Published with Ghost & Aspect

When SOFR Screams and the Fed Panics: The 2019–2020 Signal That Everyone Slept On

  • Oz by Oz
    Oz Oz
    Co-founder and lead technical analyst at The Markets Unplugged. Leads technical, macro, and cycle analysis, and builds the timing and macro frameworks behind TMU's premium research. Instructor on the Cycle Intelligence course.
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  • April 13, 2025
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When SOFR Screams and the Fed Panics: The 2019–2020 Signal That Everyone Slept On
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Traders often focus on the Fed Funds Rate, CPI headlines, or jobs data. But beneath the surface, there’s a quieter, more revealing indicator — SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate). Oz refers to it as the market’s heartbeat, and in hindsight, it was the only signal that mattered in the run-up to 2020.

As volatility builds again in 2025, the same pattern is unfolding. SOFR is calm, but conditions around it are tightening. The last time this happened, markets didn’t adjust — they snapped.


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Oz Oz
Co-founder and lead technical analyst at The Markets Unplugged. Leads technical, macro, and cycle analysis, and builds the timing and macro frameworks behind TMU's premium research. Instructor on the Cycle Intelligence course.
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